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Blizzcon #HGC @HeroesEsports predictions: No NA team will make the top 4

The top 4 of Blizzcon will consist of one NA team, quote me on it 🙂 #HGC

— HHE Khroen (@Khroen) October 29, 2017

No NA team will make the top 4 at Blizzcon. One team has a chance, but all three teams should (should) lose their quarter final matches. Now, don't mistake this. I am cheering for all three NA teams. I want them to prove me wrong. The last two years, EU and Korea have been the strongest regions, and EU is just slightly ahead. This puts NA in a distant third. All sports, traditional and esports, are better when there is parity. That is, when there is no clear dominant dynasty. For the health of the game, NA needs to be strong (also, for the health of the game, China's visa issues need to get fucking fixed, but that's for after Blizzcon). But, right now, FNATIC, Team Dignitas, MVP Black, and Ballistix are so much further ahead of the field, that it's hard to see a scene where the NA teams (or Team expert) break through.

So, bracket please:


(all my images made with screen shots using PSP 7, the best piece of software from 2003 that everyone else has moved on from)

Match 1: MVP Black over Team Freedom

Look, Team Freedom can beat MVP Black. Anyone can beat anyone. Yes. Rich could get a terrible night of sleep and not be the savage killer he is. It's just not going to happen. What is going to happen is we will see the current best player in the world (Rich) against the future best player in the world (Kure), and that is worth the price of admission. TF will make it interesting. They will hang around in both games, but MVP Black is ready, and TF is out in a sweep, 2-0 MVPB.

Match 2: Team Dignitas over Team expert

Probably the most competitive match, but the problem for expert is that adrd will not surprise Dignitas. Yes, he can; no, he won't. Dignitas remains the best team fight team in the world. When Dignitas engages, the right thing to do is walk away. Never take the fight on their terms. In the heat of battle, no one remembers this. With the crowd behind them, Dignitas makes their third straight semifinal, and possibly, their third straight final. 2-1 over expert, because adrd will get one in.

EDIT: Dig lost to Ballistix in the semis last year! It was FNATIC in the finals. How did I forget that?

Match 3: FNATIC over Tempo Storm

On the bright side, Tempo Storm can head into the off season knowing that they have fixed their issues. It took all of phase 2, but TS looks the best they have ever looked. Rumors of a roster change scare me, and, TS, if you are reading this do not make a roster change! That said, FNATIC is the team of the year. It has been their year, all year, and their MSB performance, never losing once the bracket started, tells you everything you need to know. Tempo Storm gets a game. FNATIC moves on, 2-1.

Match 4: Ballistix over Roll20 esports

If there is a match that NA can win, it's this one. Roll20 started out as Chu8's team, that a lot of people considered to be a joke. The thing is, they never got the joke. Since the departure of Chu8, the adding of Prismaticism, and later, Goku, Roll20 has emerged as the clear top team in NA. They don't play the meta, they break the meta. That is why they have a chance to win. Put the odds at 75%-25%, in Ballistix favor. If the following three things happen, Roll20 wins, but all three have to happen in two games:

1. Glaurung gets the hero he actually wants to play each game, which means Ballistix guesses wrong on the ban. Their first ban will be Medivh or a melee assassin. It's a shell game.
2. Prismaticism gets a minimum of 4 kills early in team fights. 
3. Buds emerges as the top support in the tournament. 

If those three things happen, Roll20 will beat Ballistix. Ballistix shut down a very game Team expert in a match that went from being super hyped to a complete blow out. They are the defending champs, and they will, most likely, take out Roll20, 2-1. 

These picks should come as no surprise to anyone. Anyone who saw the groups should have picked FNATIC, Team Dignitas, MVP Black, and Ballistix to win their groups. 

Semifinal 1: Team Dignitas over MVP Black

Yes, the MVP Black that Dignitas defeated in the MSB didn't have Rich on it. Yes, Rich is the best player in the world. It doesn't matter. Team Dignitas knows what is before them - a third straight trip to the final match. 2015, lost to C9 (do a shot); 2016, lost to Ballistix. Bakery has touted the addition of Zaelia all year long. JayPL is the best engage tank in the world, Bakery is the best support, and frankly, Mene and Snitch are just cold blooded killers. Team Dignitas still has Korea's number, and they are dialing. 3-1, Team Dignitas in the finals.

Semifinal 2: FNATIC over Ballistix

Who is really there to challenge FNATIC? Don't mistake it, please, Ballistix is game. They are the fourth best team in the world, but this has been the year of the Swedish Backstreet Boys, and this is a statement game for FNATIC. Through luck, they avoided the Korean teams in the MSB phoenix bracket, only having to defeat a game eStar and Team Dignitas (twice) to win. Ballistix roster changes from phase 1 to phase 2 make them a more dominant big match team, as they took the second Eastern Clash, but it's all about FNATIC. 3-1, and we get an all-EU finals. 

Finals: Team Dignitas over FNATIC???

I go back and forth. Right now, it seems clear that FNATIC is the team to beat, they have the best chance, but a lot of people, myself included think it's Team Dignitas's time. The Swedish Backstreet Boys are, like MVP Black was last year, the team of the year, even if they fall short. I think both want it. I think Team Dignitas has the edge in team fight. I think FNATIC is a slightly better drafting team with just slightly better macro play. I think Team Dignitas has a better hero pool. 

Ultimately, either of these teams, or the two Korean teams, could walk away the winner, and it would surprise no one. 

I think, ultimately, the edge goes to Team Dignitas, 3-2, in the best finals, of any event, Blizzcon has ever seen. Third time is the charm. The best team wins.