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Blizzcon #HGC @HeroesEsports predictions: No NA team will make the top 4

The top 4 of Blizzcon will consist of one NA team, quote me on it 🙂 #HGC

— HHE Khroen (@Khroen) October 29, 2017

No NA team will make the top 4 at Blizzcon. One team has a chance, but all three teams should (should) lose their quarter final matches. Now, don't mistake this. I am cheering for all three NA teams. I want them to prove me wrong. The last two years, EU and Korea have been the strongest regions, and EU is just slightly ahead. This puts NA in a distant third. All sports, traditional and esports, are better when there is parity. That is, when there is no clear dominant dynasty. For the health of the game, NA needs to be strong (also, for the health of the game, China's visa issues need to get fucking fixed, but that's for after Blizzcon). But, right now, FNATIC, Team Dignitas, MVP Black, and Ballistix are so much further ahead of the field, that it's hard to see a scene where the NA teams (or Team expert) break through.

So, bracket please:


(all my images made with screen shots using PSP 7, the best piece of software from 2003 that everyone else has moved on from)

Match 1: MVP Black over Team Freedom

Look, Team Freedom can beat MVP Black. Anyone can beat anyone. Yes. Rich could get a terrible night of sleep and not be the savage killer he is. It's just not going to happen. What is going to happen is we will see the current best player in the world (Rich) against the future best player in the world (Kure), and that is worth the price of admission. TF will make it interesting. They will hang around in both games, but MVP Black is ready, and TF is out in a sweep, 2-0 MVPB.

Match 2: Team Dignitas over Team expert

Probably the most competitive match, but the problem for expert is that adrd will not surprise Dignitas. Yes, he can; no, he won't. Dignitas remains the best team fight team in the world. When Dignitas engages, the right thing to do is walk away. Never take the fight on their terms. In the heat of battle, no one remembers this. With the crowd behind them, Dignitas makes their third straight semifinal, and possibly, their third straight final. 2-1 over expert, because adrd will get one in.

EDIT: Dig lost to Ballistix in the semis last year! It was FNATIC in the finals. How did I forget that?

Match 3: FNATIC over Tempo Storm

On the bright side, Tempo Storm can head into the off season knowing that they have fixed their issues. It took all of phase 2, but TS looks the best they have ever looked. Rumors of a roster change scare me, and, TS, if you are reading this do not make a roster change! That said, FNATIC is the team of the year. It has been their year, all year, and their MSB performance, never losing once the bracket started, tells you everything you need to know. Tempo Storm gets a game. FNATIC moves on, 2-1.

Match 4: Ballistix over Roll20 esports

If there is a match that NA can win, it's this one. Roll20 started out as Chu8's team, that a lot of people considered to be a joke. The thing is, they never got the joke. Since the departure of Chu8, the adding of Prismaticism, and later, Goku, Roll20 has emerged as the clear top team in NA. They don't play the meta, they break the meta. That is why they have a chance to win. Put the odds at 75%-25%, in Ballistix favor. If the following three things happen, Roll20 wins, but all three have to happen in two games:

1. Glaurung gets the hero he actually wants to play each game, which means Ballistix guesses wrong on the ban. Their first ban will be Medivh or a melee assassin. It's a shell game.
2. Prismaticism gets a minimum of 4 kills early in team fights. 
3. Buds emerges as the top support in the tournament. 

If those three things happen, Roll20 will beat Ballistix. Ballistix shut down a very game Team expert in a match that went from being super hyped to a complete blow out. They are the defending champs, and they will, most likely, take out Roll20, 2-1. 

These picks should come as no surprise to anyone. Anyone who saw the groups should have picked FNATIC, Team Dignitas, MVP Black, and Ballistix to win their groups. 

Semifinal 1: Team Dignitas over MVP Black

Yes, the MVP Black that Dignitas defeated in the MSB didn't have Rich on it. Yes, Rich is the best player in the world. It doesn't matter. Team Dignitas knows what is before them - a third straight trip to the final match. 2015, lost to C9 (do a shot); 2016, lost to Ballistix. Bakery has touted the addition of Zaelia all year long. JayPL is the best engage tank in the world, Bakery is the best support, and frankly, Mene and Snitch are just cold blooded killers. Team Dignitas still has Korea's number, and they are dialing. 3-1, Team Dignitas in the finals.

Semifinal 2: FNATIC over Ballistix

Who is really there to challenge FNATIC? Don't mistake it, please, Ballistix is game. They are the fourth best team in the world, but this has been the year of the Swedish Backstreet Boys, and this is a statement game for FNATIC. Through luck, they avoided the Korean teams in the MSB phoenix bracket, only having to defeat a game eStar and Team Dignitas (twice) to win. Ballistix roster changes from phase 1 to phase 2 make them a more dominant big match team, as they took the second Eastern Clash, but it's all about FNATIC. 3-1, and we get an all-EU finals. 

Finals: Team Dignitas over FNATIC???

I go back and forth. Right now, it seems clear that FNATIC is the team to beat, they have the best chance, but a lot of people, myself included think it's Team Dignitas's time. The Swedish Backstreet Boys are, like MVP Black was last year, the team of the year, even if they fall short. I think both want it. I think Team Dignitas has the edge in team fight. I think FNATIC is a slightly better drafting team with just slightly better macro play. I think Team Dignitas has a better hero pool. 

Ultimately, either of these teams, or the two Korean teams, could walk away the winner, and it would surprise no one. 

I think, ultimately, the edge goes to Team Dignitas, 3-2, in the best finals, of any event, Blizzcon has ever seen. Third time is the charm. The best team wins.

Odds of winning Blizzcon #HGC @HeroesEsports Finals

After posting the group predictions, I want to look at this in an odds fashion, the same way prognosticators do for the Super Bowl at the start of the NFL season. Mind you, these are not Vegas odds, or for betting in anyway (is there betting on this?), just what I think each team's chances are of winning the finals.

These odds are based on quarter finals being seeded as 1 A vs 2 D, 1 B vs 2 C, 1 C vs 2 B, and 1 D vs 2 A, from top to bottom of the bracket. We do not know how the actual seeding will take place out of groups.

The long shots: China and the minor regions of LA, SEA, Taiwan, and ANZ
RED Canids: 5000/1
Beyond the Game: 5000/1
Dark Sided: 5000/1
Deadly Kittens: 5000/1
CE: 1000/1
SPT: 1000/1
Soul Torturers: 500/1

Only Soul Torturers even has a chance of making it out of groups, and they won't. They could catch expert sleeping in the winners' match. They could surprise the world and upset the defending Blizzcon champs. They won't do either.

The NA Hopefuls 
Tempo Storm: 250/1
Team Freedom: 100/1

Tempo Storm and Team Freedom should both get out of groups. They will, then, go against EU or Korean teams in their quarterfinals, the clock will strike midnight, and they won't go any further. Tempo Storm has a rough off-season ahead, after their fall from the top of NA, and Team Freedom is on the rise, but they aren't there yet.

Last out of the Group of Death, Group C
Tempest: 50/1 
Roll20: 50/1

The winner of the deciders' match of group C has a shot to run the table, though, they are likely to draw FNATIC in the quarterfinals. We don't know yet, because Blizzard hasn't released how the seeding will go, but we can assume 1 A vs 2 D, 1 B vs 2 C, 1 C vs 2 B, and 1 D vs 2 A. This means getting the favorite after having already faced the toughest group. Yes, both of these teams are capable and real contenders, but neither is likely to get out of the quarters if they draw FNATIC, as they are very likely to do.

Your Dark Horse and ridden by the Mad Scientist, adrd
Team expert: 25/1

If Team expert upsets Ballistix, they draw Tempo Storm from group A as the winners of group D. That puts Team expert in the semi-finals against Team Dignitas, a better team, but a team they can beat. Team expert has a path to the finals. It requires them catching all the luck, and if they mess up against Ballistix, they will draw MVP Black in the quarters. But, even if they do, they are capable of beating MVP Black! Every thing has to go right for expert, but if it does, don't be surprised if they end up hoisting the trophy at the end.

Your contenders
Ballistix: 15/1

If Ballistix wins over Team expert in the group stage, they get a #1 seed and they can return to glory, but they are the weakest of the top 4. All three of the teams above them are clearly better. If they lose to expert in Group D, they face MVP Black in quarters. Ballistix won the Eastern Clash, but dropped both matches to MVP Black in Regional play.

MVP Black: 10/1

What world are we living in where MVP Black isn't the favorite? Where no Korean team is the favorite to win? MVP Black will not face a challenge in the groups. They should come out 4-0. If they draw Ballistix, they know them and what they can do, and should be able to dispatch them. If they draw Team expert, they are the better team, and just have to avoid getting caught in adrd's mind games. The problem is they will likely see FNATIC in the semis, and the Swedish Backstreet Boys are looking unstoppable.

Team Dignitas: 3/1

Team Dignitas is still the best team fight in the world. I have been saying it all year, and they are taking that to the finals. Winning group C will likely give them Team Freedom to snack on, then they will face either Ballistix (whom they have beaten), expert (whom they have beaten), or, in the unlikeliest possibility, Tempo Storm (whom they will easily dispatch). Team Dignitas has the easiest road to the finals, and that makes them the easiest team to pencil in.

FNATIC: 3/5

Let's be honest. It's been FNATIC's year. The fall of Team Liquid (nee Mistfits, mYinsanity) in Europe, and some slight inconsistency from Dignitas and expert, have put FNATIC on top of their region. Aside from an uncharacteristic loss to the Playing Ducks (now Diamond Skin again because sponsors didn't pay), FNATIC has just run over everyone. They have a slightly harder road than Dignitas, likely seeing MVP Black in the semis, but their group is easier. FNATIC already has a global win, and have locked up team of the year, regardless of whether or not they win Blizzcon.

So they might as well win.

Blizzcon Group D

If C was the group of death, Group D is the easiest to call.

Ballistix and Team expert.

There. Done.

What? Soul Torturers and SPT have no chance. None.

What? FINE.

Match 1: Soul Torturers over SPT

Yeah, China is not looking good. The Taiwan team takes them out in the opening match. SPT was hot garbage at the Mid-Season Brawl, and since EStar went away, continued visa issues for Chinese teams (someone fix that), my heart goes out to the China eSports scene because we almost never see them at their full strength at Blizzcon. Soul Torturers, with three members formerly on Please Buff Arthas, have done much better than their mainland counterparts, getting an impressive four wins in the group stage at the MSB. So, a minor region gets a win. What next?

Match 2: Team expert over Ballistix???

Yes. I'm going there. Look, it doesn't matter, which ever team loses this match wins the deciders' match, both are going through. I think too many people are sleeping on expert and they are contenders for the finals, 100%. When you have adrd drafting, you have to prepare for everything. This is the guy who pulled out Gazlowe in a match this year! Yes, it failed, but you have no idea what he willing to try. He's the mad scientist. Team expert catches Ballistix on cruise control, 2-1.

Winners' Match: Team expert over Soul Torturers 

2-0. ST is not ready for expert. This will be a pub stomp. The dream for the minor regions is on life support and no minor region will make it out of groups.

Losers' Match: Ballistix over SPT

How much does it suck to be SPT? You are your entire region's hope. You had visa issues. You were terrible at the last global event, finishing last in your group. You run into an angry Ballistix team, defending Blizzcon champions, who just got knocked off by a crazy guy from Poland (love you adrd!). You get 2-0ed and bounced out as a major region that is not NA doesn't make it out of groups.

Deciders' Match: Ballistix over Soul Torturers 

This won't be pretty. The groups were set up so that 1 and 2 of Korea and 1 and 2 of Europe would be the top seeds heading into playoffs. Ballistix is likely looking at facing the winner of Group A (MVP Black) coming out at the bottom of Group D. Expect a very short match. 2-0. Ballistix is will end up with a tough road ahead.

You can safely skip most of this group, but make sure to watch Team expert vs. Ballistix. That match, if it goes how I think it will go, will be epic.

Blizzcon Group C

So, if you remember, in my review of Group A, I called that the "group of death." I was wrong. Group C is the group of death. Every team here is a candidate for  the finals, except for RED Canids, which is still a strong team coming out of the minor region of Latin America.

On a sad note, this was the last season of HGC Copa America. I wonder how Latin America will be decided going forward.

So, NA 1, Roll20, EU 2, Team Dignitas, Korea 3, Tempest. All three of these teams are capable of hanging with MVP Black, FNATIC, and Ballistix (who are sponsoring L5 again after dumping them after they won Blizzcon last year... seriously, what the fuck is wrong with Korean Heroes eSports sponsors), but only two of these teams can go through.

So, what happens?

Match 1: Roll20 over RED Canids

The sad thing is RED Canids is going out 0-4. They will lose this 0-2, and the losers' match. Roll20 already has their vision set on getting out of this group.

Match 2: Team Dignitas over Tempest

Also a 2-0. Dignitas is still, as I have been saying all year, the best team fight team in the world. That has not changed. They will take the fights they want, and Dignitas has wins over MVP Black and Ballistix this year. Tempest is good, but they needed to avoid EU teams to make it out.

Winners' Match: Team Dignitas over Roll20

Sorry, but it's 2-0. Roll20 is not in the elite spot yet. Adding Goku made them stronger, but, at this point, Dignitas is looking to make their third straight push for a Blizzcon championship. They lost 3-0 against Cloud 9 (everyone do a shot) in 2015, lost in the semis to Ballistix in 2016, and they are tired of coming up short. Hot knife through butter, Dignitas dominates Roll20.

Losers' Match: Tempest over RED Canids

As we bid farewell to the Latin American HotS scene, Tempest knocks them out easily. You can skip this match, but don't. Show up, cheer for RED Canids. They have worked really hard and been consistent in a region that is getting very little love. It won't change Tempest running them over.

Deciders' Match: Roll20 over Tempest

I keep going back and forth on this. Last night, I had Tempest. This morning, I have Roll20. Bottom line: Roll20 took two games off of MVP Black at the Mid-Season Brawl, and Tempest could not hang with the top in their own region.

So, since this will be a 2-1. Here's how Roll20 wins: Tempest either targets Glaurung, or they fail to target Prismaticism.

In 2016, the common wisdom was, when playing Glaurung, target his hero pool. This no longer works. If you ban Medivh, Glau goes back to his assassins and wrecks you, and you wasted a ban on Medivh. If you don't ban Medivh, Glau sets up the combos and wrecks you.

Tempest needs to target Prismaticism. The swing on Roll20 is: does Prismat get Chromie when the map calls for it? If he does, Roll20 starts picking targets and Chromie starts deleting. To win, Tempest must target Prismaticism in the draft and try to chip away at what he can do.

I don't think, in the end, Tempest will manage this. They go after Glau, as most teams still do, and they get wrecked.

Group D coming in a few minutes.

Blizzcon Group B

Late, I know. Busy. No excuses. Here we go.

FNATIC is winning this group. It will be straight sweeps and on to the quarters.

What?

OK. FINE!

Match 1: FNATIC over Dark Sided

Yes, Dark Sided unseated fan favorite and regular at internationals, Nomia. It won't help them. The Swedish Backstreet Boys are going to run them over. You can safely skip this match.

Match 2: Team Freedom over Beyond the Game

#2 NA vs. #3 China. China is really hurting with the disbanding of EStar. Team Freedom has exploded with the addition of Kure, and they are the American team most likely to make the playoff stage. Expect a fast victory as TF is looking ahead to FNATIC.

Winners' Match: FNATIC over Team Freedom

Even if Team Freedom had an extra month to prepare, it wouldn't help. FNATIC is going to shut them out. All signs point to this being the crowning of FNATIC. Team Freedom is a speed bump.

Losers' Match: Dark Sided over Beyond the Game???

That was not a typo. Nomia was a good team on the verge of breaking into the global scene as a threat from a minor region. DS beat them. China is, without EStar, the weakest major region. ANZ's top team can and should beat the #3 team from China. First close match through.

Deciders' Match: Team Freedom over Dark Sided

A win over a Chinese team should give Dark Sided some confidence, but Team Freedom should easily dispatch them. Make no mistake about it. Team Freedom is built to compete on the global stage. They may not be able to face the top tier Korean or European teams... yet. Team Freedom only lacks the experience to compete with the top. This won't be close.

So, after two group stages, I have two NA teams making it through, and two Chinese teams going home. This might be a mistake, but I really do see China as a weaker region. Before the break up of EStar, I would have seen China as the third strongest region. Now, NA can take some comfort that they are not the bottom of the major regions, but they are no where near being able to compete with Korea and Europe.

I promise to do a full write up on what NA needs to do to get competitive (hint: stop playing with your friends) after Blizzcon.

Group C and D tomorrow.

Group stages start on Thursday.

I'm sick.

Blizzcon Group A

So, I'm back. Last post was first week of March, and life started to get nuts. I haven't been able to follow and write about HGC. Still, it's Blizzcon. It's the World Championship. Sixteen teams, three from each major region, and still no love for the minor regions, but what else is new? Group A starts next Friday, and here's how it's going down:



Basically, if there is a group of death, it's Group A. #1 Korea, #2 China, #3 NA, and the representative from SEA. Sorry, Deadly Kittens, great name, but you are out. Deadly Kittens will make it interesting in both matches, but they are going to be out classed here.

It should come as no surprise that MVP Black is going to not just win this group, but walk away with it. The real question remains two parts: how good is China's second team and has Tempo Storm gotten their groove back?

So, here we go:

Match 1: MVP Black over Deadly Kittens

It's an easy 2-0 for MVP Black. The Deadly Kittens get their big shot on the world stage, and they draw one of the three tournament favorites. The return of Rich means that you can possibly see MVP Black not dropping a map in group stages. He remains the best mechanical player in the world, and MVP Black is hungry for Blizzcon. They missed 2015. They lost in the semis of 2016 after having been unquestionably the team of the year. It's a take no prisoners year for MVP-B.

Match 2: CE over Tempo Storm

I really want to believe that Tempo Storm has figured out their issues. They stormed through the NA Playoffs and upset Gale Force to get back to Blizzcon, making them the only roster to compete at Blizzcon, two years in a row, without a single roster change. Last year, they were under the banner of Astral Authority, having qualified as Murloc Geniuses. The happy days are not back again, though, as the Murloc-Astral-Storm roster fell from first to fourth in NA between phases one and two. Ultimately, I fear that CE is too good for Tempo to beat... in the first match. Tempo Storm will likely spend this match feeling out CE, not that they will throw, but that CE will show just enough to confuse the NA third place team. CE takes this 2-1 and sends Tempo Storm to face Deadly Kittens.

Winners' Match: MVP Black over CE

It's gonna be a 2-0. CE might take a map off of MVP Black IF they can out draft them, but that is their only chance, and it's a big if. Expect MVP Black to look to strike fear in the hearts and minds of the entire field, qualify for the quarters on day one, and sit back and study everyone else. The seeding and the group heavily favor MVP Black in ways that really are not fair.

Losers' Match: Tempo Storm over Deadly Kittens

I don't want to say Deadly Kittens are going out 0-4, but they are. I want the minor regions to have more of a chance, but SEA just isn't ready. Still, the Kittens made a good showing at the Mid-Season Brawl, so they are not completely out of it, and they are good enough to upset Tempo Storm and could push CE, but that's a fairy tale. Tempo Storm, 2-0... unless they look past the Kittens to a rematch with CE.

Deciders' Match: Tempo Storm over CE

In 2016, Murloc Geniuses were the kings of "you can't beat us twice." They fell to the losers' match in the group stage of the second NA Regional, only to fight back and win the tournament for a second time on their way to Blizzcon. The lack of a roster change, the growth of these young men as a team, should mean that CE will throw their best at Tempo Storm in their first match, while I expect Tempo Storm to hide something. Ultimately, this match will come down to one player: Psalm. If Psalm is a factor, and I believe he will be, Tempo Storm wins 2-1. If CE can target or shut down Psalm, CE wins. I give the edge to Tempo Storm.

If you liked that, let me know. Group B comes out tomorrow.