Odds of winning Blizzcon #HGC @HeroesEsports Finals

After posting the group predictions, I want to look at this in an odds fashion, the same way prognosticators do for the Super Bowl at the start of the NFL season. Mind you, these are not Vegas odds, or for betting in anyway (is there betting on this?), just what I think each team's chances are of winning the finals.

These odds are based on quarter finals being seeded as 1 A vs 2 D, 1 B vs 2 C, 1 C vs 2 B, and 1 D vs 2 A, from top to bottom of the bracket. We do not know how the actual seeding will take place out of groups.

The long shots: China and the minor regions of LA, SEA, Taiwan, and ANZ
RED Canids: 5000/1
Beyond the Game: 5000/1
Dark Sided: 5000/1
Deadly Kittens: 5000/1
CE: 1000/1
SPT: 1000/1
Soul Torturers: 500/1

Only Soul Torturers even has a chance of making it out of groups, and they won't. They could catch expert sleeping in the winners' match. They could surprise the world and upset the defending Blizzcon champs. They won't do either.

The NA Hopefuls 
Tempo Storm: 250/1
Team Freedom: 100/1

Tempo Storm and Team Freedom should both get out of groups. They will, then, go against EU or Korean teams in their quarterfinals, the clock will strike midnight, and they won't go any further. Tempo Storm has a rough off-season ahead, after their fall from the top of NA, and Team Freedom is on the rise, but they aren't there yet.

Last out of the Group of Death, Group C
Tempest: 50/1 
Roll20: 50/1

The winner of the deciders' match of group C has a shot to run the table, though, they are likely to draw FNATIC in the quarterfinals. We don't know yet, because Blizzard hasn't released how the seeding will go, but we can assume 1 A vs 2 D, 1 B vs 2 C, 1 C vs 2 B, and 1 D vs 2 A. This means getting the favorite after having already faced the toughest group. Yes, both of these teams are capable and real contenders, but neither is likely to get out of the quarters if they draw FNATIC, as they are very likely to do.

Your Dark Horse and ridden by the Mad Scientist, adrd
Team expert: 25/1

If Team expert upsets Ballistix, they draw Tempo Storm from group A as the winners of group D. That puts Team expert in the semi-finals against Team Dignitas, a better team, but a team they can beat. Team expert has a path to the finals. It requires them catching all the luck, and if they mess up against Ballistix, they will draw MVP Black in the quarters. But, even if they do, they are capable of beating MVP Black! Every thing has to go right for expert, but if it does, don't be surprised if they end up hoisting the trophy at the end.

Your contenders
Ballistix: 15/1

If Ballistix wins over Team expert in the group stage, they get a #1 seed and they can return to glory, but they are the weakest of the top 4. All three of the teams above them are clearly better. If they lose to expert in Group D, they face MVP Black in quarters. Ballistix won the Eastern Clash, but dropped both matches to MVP Black in Regional play.

MVP Black: 10/1

What world are we living in where MVP Black isn't the favorite? Where no Korean team is the favorite to win? MVP Black will not face a challenge in the groups. They should come out 4-0. If they draw Ballistix, they know them and what they can do, and should be able to dispatch them. If they draw Team expert, they are the better team, and just have to avoid getting caught in adrd's mind games. The problem is they will likely see FNATIC in the semis, and the Swedish Backstreet Boys are looking unstoppable.

Team Dignitas: 3/1

Team Dignitas is still the best team fight in the world. I have been saying it all year, and they are taking that to the finals. Winning group C will likely give them Team Freedom to snack on, then they will face either Ballistix (whom they have beaten), expert (whom they have beaten), or, in the unlikeliest possibility, Tempo Storm (whom they will easily dispatch). Team Dignitas has the easiest road to the finals, and that makes them the easiest team to pencil in.

FNATIC: 3/5

Let's be honest. It's been FNATIC's year. The fall of Team Liquid (nee Mistfits, mYinsanity) in Europe, and some slight inconsistency from Dignitas and expert, have put FNATIC on top of their region. Aside from an uncharacteristic loss to the Playing Ducks (now Diamond Skin again because sponsors didn't pay), FNATIC has just run over everyone. They have a slightly harder road than Dignitas, likely seeing MVP Black in the semis, but their group is easier. FNATIC already has a global win, and have locked up team of the year, regardless of whether or not they win Blizzcon.

So they might as well win.