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Blizzcon #HGC @HeroesEsports predictions: No NA team will make the top 4

The top 4 of Blizzcon will consist of one NA team, quote me on it 🙂 #HGC

— HHE Khroen (@Khroen) October 29, 2017

No NA team will make the top 4 at Blizzcon. One team has a chance, but all three teams should (should) lose their quarter final matches. Now, don't mistake this. I am cheering for all three NA teams. I want them to prove me wrong. The last two years, EU and Korea have been the strongest regions, and EU is just slightly ahead. This puts NA in a distant third. All sports, traditional and esports, are better when there is parity. That is, when there is no clear dominant dynasty. For the health of the game, NA needs to be strong (also, for the health of the game, China's visa issues need to get fucking fixed, but that's for after Blizzcon). But, right now, FNATIC, Team Dignitas, MVP Black, and Ballistix are so much further ahead of the field, that it's hard to see a scene where the NA teams (or Team expert) break through.

So, bracket please:


(all my images made with screen shots using PSP 7, the best piece of software from 2003 that everyone else has moved on from)

Match 1: MVP Black over Team Freedom

Look, Team Freedom can beat MVP Black. Anyone can beat anyone. Yes. Rich could get a terrible night of sleep and not be the savage killer he is. It's just not going to happen. What is going to happen is we will see the current best player in the world (Rich) against the future best player in the world (Kure), and that is worth the price of admission. TF will make it interesting. They will hang around in both games, but MVP Black is ready, and TF is out in a sweep, 2-0 MVPB.

Match 2: Team Dignitas over Team expert

Probably the most competitive match, but the problem for expert is that adrd will not surprise Dignitas. Yes, he can; no, he won't. Dignitas remains the best team fight team in the world. When Dignitas engages, the right thing to do is walk away. Never take the fight on their terms. In the heat of battle, no one remembers this. With the crowd behind them, Dignitas makes their third straight semifinal, and possibly, their third straight final. 2-1 over expert, because adrd will get one in.

EDIT: Dig lost to Ballistix in the semis last year! It was FNATIC in the finals. How did I forget that?

Match 3: FNATIC over Tempo Storm

On the bright side, Tempo Storm can head into the off season knowing that they have fixed their issues. It took all of phase 2, but TS looks the best they have ever looked. Rumors of a roster change scare me, and, TS, if you are reading this do not make a roster change! That said, FNATIC is the team of the year. It has been their year, all year, and their MSB performance, never losing once the bracket started, tells you everything you need to know. Tempo Storm gets a game. FNATIC moves on, 2-1.

Match 4: Ballistix over Roll20 esports

If there is a match that NA can win, it's this one. Roll20 started out as Chu8's team, that a lot of people considered to be a joke. The thing is, they never got the joke. Since the departure of Chu8, the adding of Prismaticism, and later, Goku, Roll20 has emerged as the clear top team in NA. They don't play the meta, they break the meta. That is why they have a chance to win. Put the odds at 75%-25%, in Ballistix favor. If the following three things happen, Roll20 wins, but all three have to happen in two games:

1. Glaurung gets the hero he actually wants to play each game, which means Ballistix guesses wrong on the ban. Their first ban will be Medivh or a melee assassin. It's a shell game.
2. Prismaticism gets a minimum of 4 kills early in team fights. 
3. Buds emerges as the top support in the tournament. 

If those three things happen, Roll20 will beat Ballistix. Ballistix shut down a very game Team expert in a match that went from being super hyped to a complete blow out. They are the defending champs, and they will, most likely, take out Roll20, 2-1. 

These picks should come as no surprise to anyone. Anyone who saw the groups should have picked FNATIC, Team Dignitas, MVP Black, and Ballistix to win their groups. 

Semifinal 1: Team Dignitas over MVP Black

Yes, the MVP Black that Dignitas defeated in the MSB didn't have Rich on it. Yes, Rich is the best player in the world. It doesn't matter. Team Dignitas knows what is before them - a third straight trip to the final match. 2015, lost to C9 (do a shot); 2016, lost to Ballistix. Bakery has touted the addition of Zaelia all year long. JayPL is the best engage tank in the world, Bakery is the best support, and frankly, Mene and Snitch are just cold blooded killers. Team Dignitas still has Korea's number, and they are dialing. 3-1, Team Dignitas in the finals.

Semifinal 2: FNATIC over Ballistix

Who is really there to challenge FNATIC? Don't mistake it, please, Ballistix is game. They are the fourth best team in the world, but this has been the year of the Swedish Backstreet Boys, and this is a statement game for FNATIC. Through luck, they avoided the Korean teams in the MSB phoenix bracket, only having to defeat a game eStar and Team Dignitas (twice) to win. Ballistix roster changes from phase 1 to phase 2 make them a more dominant big match team, as they took the second Eastern Clash, but it's all about FNATIC. 3-1, and we get an all-EU finals. 

Finals: Team Dignitas over FNATIC???

I go back and forth. Right now, it seems clear that FNATIC is the team to beat, they have the best chance, but a lot of people, myself included think it's Team Dignitas's time. The Swedish Backstreet Boys are, like MVP Black was last year, the team of the year, even if they fall short. I think both want it. I think Team Dignitas has the edge in team fight. I think FNATIC is a slightly better drafting team with just slightly better macro play. I think Team Dignitas has a better hero pool. 

Ultimately, either of these teams, or the two Korean teams, could walk away the winner, and it would surprise no one. 

I think, ultimately, the edge goes to Team Dignitas, 3-2, in the best finals, of any event, Blizzcon has ever seen. Third time is the charm. The best team wins.

Odds of winning Blizzcon #HGC @HeroesEsports Finals

After posting the group predictions, I want to look at this in an odds fashion, the same way prognosticators do for the Super Bowl at the start of the NFL season. Mind you, these are not Vegas odds, or for betting in anyway (is there betting on this?), just what I think each team's chances are of winning the finals.

These odds are based on quarter finals being seeded as 1 A vs 2 D, 1 B vs 2 C, 1 C vs 2 B, and 1 D vs 2 A, from top to bottom of the bracket. We do not know how the actual seeding will take place out of groups.

The long shots: China and the minor regions of LA, SEA, Taiwan, and ANZ
RED Canids: 5000/1
Beyond the Game: 5000/1
Dark Sided: 5000/1
Deadly Kittens: 5000/1
CE: 1000/1
SPT: 1000/1
Soul Torturers: 500/1

Only Soul Torturers even has a chance of making it out of groups, and they won't. They could catch expert sleeping in the winners' match. They could surprise the world and upset the defending Blizzcon champs. They won't do either.

The NA Hopefuls 
Tempo Storm: 250/1
Team Freedom: 100/1

Tempo Storm and Team Freedom should both get out of groups. They will, then, go against EU or Korean teams in their quarterfinals, the clock will strike midnight, and they won't go any further. Tempo Storm has a rough off-season ahead, after their fall from the top of NA, and Team Freedom is on the rise, but they aren't there yet.

Last out of the Group of Death, Group C
Tempest: 50/1 
Roll20: 50/1

The winner of the deciders' match of group C has a shot to run the table, though, they are likely to draw FNATIC in the quarterfinals. We don't know yet, because Blizzard hasn't released how the seeding will go, but we can assume 1 A vs 2 D, 1 B vs 2 C, 1 C vs 2 B, and 1 D vs 2 A. This means getting the favorite after having already faced the toughest group. Yes, both of these teams are capable and real contenders, but neither is likely to get out of the quarters if they draw FNATIC, as they are very likely to do.

Your Dark Horse and ridden by the Mad Scientist, adrd
Team expert: 25/1

If Team expert upsets Ballistix, they draw Tempo Storm from group A as the winners of group D. That puts Team expert in the semi-finals against Team Dignitas, a better team, but a team they can beat. Team expert has a path to the finals. It requires them catching all the luck, and if they mess up against Ballistix, they will draw MVP Black in the quarters. But, even if they do, they are capable of beating MVP Black! Every thing has to go right for expert, but if it does, don't be surprised if they end up hoisting the trophy at the end.

Your contenders
Ballistix: 15/1

If Ballistix wins over Team expert in the group stage, they get a #1 seed and they can return to glory, but they are the weakest of the top 4. All three of the teams above them are clearly better. If they lose to expert in Group D, they face MVP Black in quarters. Ballistix won the Eastern Clash, but dropped both matches to MVP Black in Regional play.

MVP Black: 10/1

What world are we living in where MVP Black isn't the favorite? Where no Korean team is the favorite to win? MVP Black will not face a challenge in the groups. They should come out 4-0. If they draw Ballistix, they know them and what they can do, and should be able to dispatch them. If they draw Team expert, they are the better team, and just have to avoid getting caught in adrd's mind games. The problem is they will likely see FNATIC in the semis, and the Swedish Backstreet Boys are looking unstoppable.

Team Dignitas: 3/1

Team Dignitas is still the best team fight in the world. I have been saying it all year, and they are taking that to the finals. Winning group C will likely give them Team Freedom to snack on, then they will face either Ballistix (whom they have beaten), expert (whom they have beaten), or, in the unlikeliest possibility, Tempo Storm (whom they will easily dispatch). Team Dignitas has the easiest road to the finals, and that makes them the easiest team to pencil in.

FNATIC: 3/5

Let's be honest. It's been FNATIC's year. The fall of Team Liquid (nee Mistfits, mYinsanity) in Europe, and some slight inconsistency from Dignitas and expert, have put FNATIC on top of their region. Aside from an uncharacteristic loss to the Playing Ducks (now Diamond Skin again because sponsors didn't pay), FNATIC has just run over everyone. They have a slightly harder road than Dignitas, likely seeing MVP Black in the semis, but their group is easier. FNATIC already has a global win, and have locked up team of the year, regardless of whether or not they win Blizzcon.

So they might as well win.

Blizzcon Group D

If C was the group of death, Group D is the easiest to call.

Ballistix and Team expert.

There. Done.

What? Soul Torturers and SPT have no chance. None.

What? FINE.

Match 1: Soul Torturers over SPT

Yeah, China is not looking good. The Taiwan team takes them out in the opening match. SPT was hot garbage at the Mid-Season Brawl, and since EStar went away, continued visa issues for Chinese teams (someone fix that), my heart goes out to the China eSports scene because we almost never see them at their full strength at Blizzcon. Soul Torturers, with three members formerly on Please Buff Arthas, have done much better than their mainland counterparts, getting an impressive four wins in the group stage at the MSB. So, a minor region gets a win. What next?

Match 2: Team expert over Ballistix???

Yes. I'm going there. Look, it doesn't matter, which ever team loses this match wins the deciders' match, both are going through. I think too many people are sleeping on expert and they are contenders for the finals, 100%. When you have adrd drafting, you have to prepare for everything. This is the guy who pulled out Gazlowe in a match this year! Yes, it failed, but you have no idea what he willing to try. He's the mad scientist. Team expert catches Ballistix on cruise control, 2-1.

Winners' Match: Team expert over Soul Torturers 

2-0. ST is not ready for expert. This will be a pub stomp. The dream for the minor regions is on life support and no minor region will make it out of groups.

Losers' Match: Ballistix over SPT

How much does it suck to be SPT? You are your entire region's hope. You had visa issues. You were terrible at the last global event, finishing last in your group. You run into an angry Ballistix team, defending Blizzcon champions, who just got knocked off by a crazy guy from Poland (love you adrd!). You get 2-0ed and bounced out as a major region that is not NA doesn't make it out of groups.

Deciders' Match: Ballistix over Soul Torturers 

This won't be pretty. The groups were set up so that 1 and 2 of Korea and 1 and 2 of Europe would be the top seeds heading into playoffs. Ballistix is likely looking at facing the winner of Group A (MVP Black) coming out at the bottom of Group D. Expect a very short match. 2-0. Ballistix is will end up with a tough road ahead.

You can safely skip most of this group, but make sure to watch Team expert vs. Ballistix. That match, if it goes how I think it will go, will be epic.

Blizzcon Group C

So, if you remember, in my review of Group A, I called that the "group of death." I was wrong. Group C is the group of death. Every team here is a candidate for  the finals, except for RED Canids, which is still a strong team coming out of the minor region of Latin America.

On a sad note, this was the last season of HGC Copa America. I wonder how Latin America will be decided going forward.

So, NA 1, Roll20, EU 2, Team Dignitas, Korea 3, Tempest. All three of these teams are capable of hanging with MVP Black, FNATIC, and Ballistix (who are sponsoring L5 again after dumping them after they won Blizzcon last year... seriously, what the fuck is wrong with Korean Heroes eSports sponsors), but only two of these teams can go through.

So, what happens?

Match 1: Roll20 over RED Canids

The sad thing is RED Canids is going out 0-4. They will lose this 0-2, and the losers' match. Roll20 already has their vision set on getting out of this group.

Match 2: Team Dignitas over Tempest

Also a 2-0. Dignitas is still, as I have been saying all year, the best team fight team in the world. That has not changed. They will take the fights they want, and Dignitas has wins over MVP Black and Ballistix this year. Tempest is good, but they needed to avoid EU teams to make it out.

Winners' Match: Team Dignitas over Roll20

Sorry, but it's 2-0. Roll20 is not in the elite spot yet. Adding Goku made them stronger, but, at this point, Dignitas is looking to make their third straight push for a Blizzcon championship. They lost 3-0 against Cloud 9 (everyone do a shot) in 2015, lost in the semis to Ballistix in 2016, and they are tired of coming up short. Hot knife through butter, Dignitas dominates Roll20.

Losers' Match: Tempest over RED Canids

As we bid farewell to the Latin American HotS scene, Tempest knocks them out easily. You can skip this match, but don't. Show up, cheer for RED Canids. They have worked really hard and been consistent in a region that is getting very little love. It won't change Tempest running them over.

Deciders' Match: Roll20 over Tempest

I keep going back and forth on this. Last night, I had Tempest. This morning, I have Roll20. Bottom line: Roll20 took two games off of MVP Black at the Mid-Season Brawl, and Tempest could not hang with the top in their own region.

So, since this will be a 2-1. Here's how Roll20 wins: Tempest either targets Glaurung, or they fail to target Prismaticism.

In 2016, the common wisdom was, when playing Glaurung, target his hero pool. This no longer works. If you ban Medivh, Glau goes back to his assassins and wrecks you, and you wasted a ban on Medivh. If you don't ban Medivh, Glau sets up the combos and wrecks you.

Tempest needs to target Prismaticism. The swing on Roll20 is: does Prismat get Chromie when the map calls for it? If he does, Roll20 starts picking targets and Chromie starts deleting. To win, Tempest must target Prismaticism in the draft and try to chip away at what he can do.

I don't think, in the end, Tempest will manage this. They go after Glau, as most teams still do, and they get wrecked.

Group D coming in a few minutes.

Blizzcon Group B

Late, I know. Busy. No excuses. Here we go.

FNATIC is winning this group. It will be straight sweeps and on to the quarters.

What?

OK. FINE!

Match 1: FNATIC over Dark Sided

Yes, Dark Sided unseated fan favorite and regular at internationals, Nomia. It won't help them. The Swedish Backstreet Boys are going to run them over. You can safely skip this match.

Match 2: Team Freedom over Beyond the Game

#2 NA vs. #3 China. China is really hurting with the disbanding of EStar. Team Freedom has exploded with the addition of Kure, and they are the American team most likely to make the playoff stage. Expect a fast victory as TF is looking ahead to FNATIC.

Winners' Match: FNATIC over Team Freedom

Even if Team Freedom had an extra month to prepare, it wouldn't help. FNATIC is going to shut them out. All signs point to this being the crowning of FNATIC. Team Freedom is a speed bump.

Losers' Match: Dark Sided over Beyond the Game???

That was not a typo. Nomia was a good team on the verge of breaking into the global scene as a threat from a minor region. DS beat them. China is, without EStar, the weakest major region. ANZ's top team can and should beat the #3 team from China. First close match through.

Deciders' Match: Team Freedom over Dark Sided

A win over a Chinese team should give Dark Sided some confidence, but Team Freedom should easily dispatch them. Make no mistake about it. Team Freedom is built to compete on the global stage. They may not be able to face the top tier Korean or European teams... yet. Team Freedom only lacks the experience to compete with the top. This won't be close.

So, after two group stages, I have two NA teams making it through, and two Chinese teams going home. This might be a mistake, but I really do see China as a weaker region. Before the break up of EStar, I would have seen China as the third strongest region. Now, NA can take some comfort that they are not the bottom of the major regions, but they are no where near being able to compete with Korea and Europe.

I promise to do a full write up on what NA needs to do to get competitive (hint: stop playing with your friends) after Blizzcon.

Group C and D tomorrow.

Group stages start on Thursday.

I'm sick.

Blizzcon Group A

So, I'm back. Last post was first week of March, and life started to get nuts. I haven't been able to follow and write about HGC. Still, it's Blizzcon. It's the World Championship. Sixteen teams, three from each major region, and still no love for the minor regions, but what else is new? Group A starts next Friday, and here's how it's going down:



Basically, if there is a group of death, it's Group A. #1 Korea, #2 China, #3 NA, and the representative from SEA. Sorry, Deadly Kittens, great name, but you are out. Deadly Kittens will make it interesting in both matches, but they are going to be out classed here.

It should come as no surprise that MVP Black is going to not just win this group, but walk away with it. The real question remains two parts: how good is China's second team and has Tempo Storm gotten their groove back?

So, here we go:

Match 1: MVP Black over Deadly Kittens

It's an easy 2-0 for MVP Black. The Deadly Kittens get their big shot on the world stage, and they draw one of the three tournament favorites. The return of Rich means that you can possibly see MVP Black not dropping a map in group stages. He remains the best mechanical player in the world, and MVP Black is hungry for Blizzcon. They missed 2015. They lost in the semis of 2016 after having been unquestionably the team of the year. It's a take no prisoners year for MVP-B.

Match 2: CE over Tempo Storm

I really want to believe that Tempo Storm has figured out their issues. They stormed through the NA Playoffs and upset Gale Force to get back to Blizzcon, making them the only roster to compete at Blizzcon, two years in a row, without a single roster change. Last year, they were under the banner of Astral Authority, having qualified as Murloc Geniuses. The happy days are not back again, though, as the Murloc-Astral-Storm roster fell from first to fourth in NA between phases one and two. Ultimately, I fear that CE is too good for Tempo to beat... in the first match. Tempo Storm will likely spend this match feeling out CE, not that they will throw, but that CE will show just enough to confuse the NA third place team. CE takes this 2-1 and sends Tempo Storm to face Deadly Kittens.

Winners' Match: MVP Black over CE

It's gonna be a 2-0. CE might take a map off of MVP Black IF they can out draft them, but that is their only chance, and it's a big if. Expect MVP Black to look to strike fear in the hearts and minds of the entire field, qualify for the quarters on day one, and sit back and study everyone else. The seeding and the group heavily favor MVP Black in ways that really are not fair.

Losers' Match: Tempo Storm over Deadly Kittens

I don't want to say Deadly Kittens are going out 0-4, but they are. I want the minor regions to have more of a chance, but SEA just isn't ready. Still, the Kittens made a good showing at the Mid-Season Brawl, so they are not completely out of it, and they are good enough to upset Tempo Storm and could push CE, but that's a fairy tale. Tempo Storm, 2-0... unless they look past the Kittens to a rematch with CE.

Deciders' Match: Tempo Storm over CE

In 2016, Murloc Geniuses were the kings of "you can't beat us twice." They fell to the losers' match in the group stage of the second NA Regional, only to fight back and win the tournament for a second time on their way to Blizzcon. The lack of a roster change, the growth of these young men as a team, should mean that CE will throw their best at Tempo Storm in their first match, while I expect Tempo Storm to hide something. Ultimately, this match will come down to one player: Psalm. If Psalm is a factor, and I believe he will be, Tempo Storm wins 2-1. If CE can target or shut down Psalm, CE wins. I give the edge to Tempo Storm.

If you liked that, let me know. Group B comes out tomorrow.

Lessons from Day 2, #HGC Western Clash

NA is not competitive internationally, period: In 2015, Cloud 9 (everyone do a shot!) swept Team DK and Team Dignitas (Korea and EU, respectively) to win the World Championship. Since then, NA has been unable to do anything of note on the international stage. Today was no different. FNATIC swept Tempo Storm, and Dignitas swept GFE. The record for NA against EU is utterly humiliating:

GFE 0-5 vs. EU
Tempo Storm 0-3 vs. EU
Team 8 1-2 vs. EU

For those who cannot add, that's a 1-10 record for NA vs. EU. The Western Clash is less of a tournament and more of a showcase of EU as clearly the second strongest region behind Korea.

Barring a miracle by Team 8 tomorrow, this NA/EU rivalry will end in a completely one-sided stomp that should make Blizzard consider rotating the clash next year so that EU and Korea can square off (they should probably do that anyway). "LOL NA" has never been more appropriate, and you know how much I hate giving power to Twitch Chat Trolls.

Misfits is Back to Being Immortal; Pay No Attention to the Nomia Series: Yesterday, I said that Misfits was mortal almost getting knocked to the losers bracket by ANZ's Nomia. Forget that. Yes, Snitch was unwell, but Misfits swept Dignitas with relative ease to move on to the next round. Not five hours later, a still sick Snitch and Dignitas took out GFE in a sweep. Now, either Snitch recovered really fast or Dignitas is just that good. I would bet on the latter. Meaning, Misfits is even better.

Can Team 8 Get a Fucking Sponsor Already? Two of the three gutter teams in NA (Team Freedom and Naventic) have sponsors. Why hasn't an eSports organization stepped up to sponsor Team 8? For that matter, why are there any teams in pro HotS without a sponsor? In beating Tempo Storm, Team 8 holds best-of-five victories over all of the other teams in NA. Right now, they are the top team, and no one will sponsor them.

It's not like this is an NA-only problem. L5, after winning Blizzcon, lost their sponsor, and they are currently running the table in Korea without a sponsor. Still, that means that the top team in two of the four major regions has no sponsorship, no backing.

JHow and Solid Jake Need a Regular HGC Gig: All of the casters we have are fantastic, but in the last series, Jake and JHow were just awesome. No one needs to be replaced, but we could just expand coverage for Latin America or something just so that these two can cast together.

So, What Happens Tomorrow? First, because it wasn't obvious which teams went where in the losers bracket (thanks for no bracket challenge, Blizzard), my bracket was messed up, though I'm technically correct on my top 3. That isn't an accomplishment since everyone had 1. Misfits, 2. FNATIC, 3. Dignitas, 4. The Least Bad NA Team. Anyway, here's what you need to know:

Team Dignitas 3-2 over Team 8: Team 8 has already shown that they can take a map off of EU, and they did it against Dig. Expect Team 8 to get game one and game four. I would like to see Team 8 force Dignitas onto Warhead Junction or Braxis in an attempt to make them uncomfortable, but I am almost positive Dig will ban out WJ. Team 8 can win this if they learn the lesson about Dig I have been preaching: do not fight on their terms. That means, don't fight them when they engage, and don't fight them when they are ready to defend. Team 8 has to catch Dig off balance, and do so in the mid and late games to win.

Misfits 3-2 over FNATIC: The league match was a classic, and this will likely be the first of two matches that we see. Misfits getting a scare from Nomia woke them up, and now, everyone beware. FNATIC is good, and this will be close. Game five will come down to a minor error that Misfits will exploit and turn.

FNATIC 3-1 over Team Dignitas: Right now, Team Dignitas has work to do in figuring out how to play against Misfits and FNATIC, and that work will not happen between now and tomorrow. FNATIC is too good right now, and they own Dig.

Misfits 3-2 over FNATIC (again): First, Misfits will start with a +1 advantage for not having lost, meaning they only need to win two. Second, FNATIC will have just come off of playing two series in a row to play series three, so they are going to be tired. The schedule locks it in for Misfits as they will enjoy the winner's advantage and win the first clash.

And with that, I'll leave you all with this clip of Dread getting broken by Jake at the desk:

Lessons from Day 1, #HGC Western Clash

Misfits are Mortals: The undisputed gods of HGC 2017 dropped the first map of the day to ANZ champs Nomia. It was marked by some uncharacteristic Misfits greed:

What world is this? #Nomia takes game 1 off of @MisfitsGG???? I don't even know! #HGChttps://t.co/32CfA2kzU5

— Anne Elise Morrigan (@anne_elise) March 3, 2017

Most viewers of Heroes eSports cannot name a single member of Nomia, but they have a lot of international experience under other names. After the game one scare, and a nearly petrifying failed game two core rush by Nomia, Misfits settled down and finished them off, but if they do this tomorrow against Team Dignitas, they are heading for the losers' bracket.

EU > NA: While we probably already knew this going in, Team 8 did hang pretty well with Team Dignitas, taking a map, and while Bakery having to eat a little crow was fun, it execution of Gale Force eSports at the hands of FNATIC was anything but fun.


GFE looked completely out of sorts against FNATIC. To be fair, they made short work of Latin America's Infamous, but Infamous was playing with a sub (see below). The bottom line is that EU looked mostly in control of NA, and that the best NA teams do not look ready for the best that EU has to offer.

Heroes eSports (and eSports in general) has to do a better job with international events and Visas: At two Blizzcons, we have had teams either pull out or be cobbled together (or both) because of visa issues. Infamous, who did not look horrible, suffered from having to get a sub warrior player, who had retired from HotS and was playing Overwatch. This cannot and should not happen. These clashes are really important, especially for the smaller regions who are not getting enough time to shine or compete. This needs to be addressed better than it has been.

ANZ Has Game: Nomia may be exiting the Clash, but they took maps off of Misfits and Team 8. If we are being honest, they almost beat Misfits in what would have been the biggest upset since PBA beat GFE last summer (minor region beating a major region does not happen often). Blizzard needs to consider investing more time and effort into developing the ANZ scene as well as the SEA and Taiwan scenes.

New Meta? What New Meta?: Other than GFE busting out Lucio to a meh record of 1-1, and the considerably fewer instances of Varian, the Lucio patch has not changed things much. Tassadar is still first pick first ban material. Ragnaros is still the most important assassin (the value of Molten Core cannot be overstated. Fight me), followed closely by Zeratul, and the supports are still dominated by Malf and Rehgar, with some Monk sprinkled in. This might be because we only saw best-of-three series today, and perhaps we will see some more Lucio and any Murky tomorrow, but for as fun as Lucio and Murky are, and as impactful as they are in solo queue, it doesn't seem like they will make their way to the competitive meta any time soon.

But Muradin is back. The loss of Varian's ability to have complete lockdown has made Muradin viable as a tank again, not that he wasn't, but he did see some fall off over the play we saw in phase one. So, the new meta is the old meta? It's good for consistency, but it doesn't help the excitement.

Anne Can Still Pick Em: 6-0 today, not that I'm counting this with my overall record. But here's what's happening tomorrow:

Misfits will top Team Dignitas 3-1. The scare against Nomia and the fact that they swept Dig once will have Misfits winning easily.

FNATIC will beat Tempo Storm, 3-1. Tempo will put up a fight, but they are going to be out-drafted and out-played.

Team Dignitas will beat Team 8, 3-2. Don't be surprised if I get this one wrong. Team 8 always fucks up my picks. Team 8 is probably the only NA team capable of beating one of the EU teams.

Tempo Storm will beat GFE, 3-2. I am changing this from my bracket, so it doesn't count if I get this one right. If Tempo wins, it's a loss for me because I picked GFE originally, but I no longer believe in GFE after that second game against FNATIC.

I will be missing the FNATIC vs. Tempo Storm match tomorrow (I have to work every Saturday morning), but the Heroes Esports Twitter account has me covered... or so they say:

@anne_elise @FNATIC @Tempo_Storm You can count on us! 😉

— Heroes Esports (@HeroesEsports) March 3, 2017

@anne_elise @FNATIC @Tempo_Storm We are watching the games and clipping awesome moments. Think it's just a great minds think alike thing 😍

— Heroes Esports (@HeroesEsports) March 3, 2017

@anne_elise @FNATIC @Tempo_Storm 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/fg3LFYk3po

— Heroes Esports (@HeroesEsports) March 3, 2017

@HeroesEsports @FNATIC @Tempo_Storm pic.twitter.com/ZEs2xhf7Sy

— Anne Elise Morrigan (@anne_elise) March 3, 2017

Predictions and Four Reasons for the #HGC Western Clash

I really wish that Blizzard had provided us with a bracket challenge of some kind. I feel like this is a missed opportunity to get more people to watch what should be some decent matches. Because they didn't, I had to resort to a screen shot and a copy pasta to give you my bracket of how I think the Western Clash will go:

The winner of the Western Clash, barring a major upset, will be Misfits.

So, here are some predictions for the matches:

Prediction 1: ANZ and LA will both go 0-2 in both of their matches. I would like to be surprised by Nomia or by Infamous, but it's not going to happen. No matter what, there just isn't enough competition in the Western minor regions for them to be prepared. Poor Nomia has the worst draw and might turn in nothing but sub 15 minute games.

Prediction 2: EU teams will take all three top spots. Not only are Misfits, FNATIC, and Dignitas better than all of the NA teams, but Playing Ducks could win this if they were the only EU team, and they are currently fifth in the region. NA has very little hope.

Prediction 3: We will see two matches of Misfits vs. FNATIC. Misfits will have to beat FNATIC twice to win this in straight sets. This will be the continuation of their epic series from earlier in the season and you would be crazy to miss a minute.

Now, I have been down on NA a lot recently. I called the bottom three teams in NA the "Oh Somebody Kill Me Please" division, and I'm not taking any of that back. Where as EU matches have all been solid contests with small mistakes, the pile of major NA misplays keeps growing. Check my clip collection on my Twitter feed when NA is playing, and you'll see what I mean. That said, I am cheering for NA. Yes, Misfits is my favorite team, other than Superstars (who are obviously not here), but we need NA to be strong and to have a good showing. So, here's four reasons why NA can win, but probably won't:

Cauthonluck: If Tempo Storm is going to prevail in any match, they are going to need Cauthon to play out of his mind. In past LANs, as part of Cognative, Brain Power, and Murloc Geniuses, Cauthon has carried his team with sound positioning and lethal accuracy. Tempo needs an A+ game, each and every map from Cauthon, or they are dead.

Michael Udall: If adrd is the mad genius of EU, then Udall is NA's Captain Ahab: a charismatic, single-minded, focused leader chasing the White Whale. Spoiler, that chase doesn't end well for Ahab, and Udall will have to make better decisions in all phases of Gale Force eSport's games. He needs mistake free drafts and perfect, near psychic shot-calling, of which he is capable, but it's almost impossible to do it 100% of the time.

Glaurung: Hands down, in all phases of the game, Glau has become the best player in all of NA (*mic drop* Fight me!). His reputation for being cocky and brash is not that well deserved, and there is no one harder working and more self-critical than Glau. This kid has punched above his weight class, leading a rag-tag team that wasn't supposed to be here into the Western Clash and contention for the NA crown. Expect to be surprised.

This is the first time we will have competitive HotS on the Lucio patch: New support, major reworks, and Murky means we have no idea what the competitive meta looks like and what has developed. Based on what we saw in the first five weeks of league play, EU had a better grasp of the meta and played much cleaner games. The scrim metas that have developed and the tournament meta that will develop is unknown, and there is no way to know who really has the advantage until the first two rounds are in. Yes, you should expect EU to win, but this patch might favor NA in ways we cannot predict.

Can an NA team win the Western Clash? Yes.

Which NA team has the best chance? Team 8.

Will an NA team win the Western Clash? No. Misfits will win.

Will an NA team finish in the top three? It would take a miracle.

NA, prove me wrong. I am so desperately wanting you to prove me wrong and show that this region has strength. We need a good showing, not just for the region, but for the health of the game. Make no mistake, EU is coming for you. I have one word for all of NA:

Win.

Grading the teams after #HGC Phase 1 for North America LATE

Yes, I know it's late. It's been a busy week, and I'm not getting paid for this (nor am I looking to be paid to do this; this blog and following NA and EU HGC is a labor of love for the sheer joy that watching pro Heroes of the Storm Matches has brought me). Sorry if you were expecting this last Monday, but if you have paid attention to the blog this long, you know I'm going to be harsh on NA teams.

Now, it's not that NA is bad, it's largely that NA has been inconsistent from top to bottom, and it appears that NA does not have the best grasp on the current meta in the game. With the Western Clash starting on Friday, Team 8, Gale Force eSports, and Tempo Storm all have a lot of work ahead of them if they even want to be competitive against EU.

Quick refresher, here's the grading scale. Remember, a C is actually a GOOD grade:

A: Outstanding, far exceeding average expectations
B: Good, or above average of what was expected
C: Average, performed exactly as expected
D: Below Average, did not to live up to expectations
F: Failure, performed far below average, extreme disappointment of expectations

I'll put them in standing order, not my power ranking order: 

Tempo Storm 6-1 (18-9) - Grade B-: The loss to GFE hurts them, but not nearly as much as their close calls to basement teams like Team Freedom and Naventic. Tempo Storm (as Murloc Geniuses) dominated Fall 2016. Something is really missing here, and they have to find it quick. Team 8 and GFE are hot on their tail, and B-Step is hitting their groove. 

Team 8 6-1 (20-6) - Grade A+: Who saw this coming? They lose their captain, Chu, before the seasons started. They pick up Prismaticism, who was kicked from Superstars. And, they have Glaurung playing Medivh! Team 8 is scary, and right now is the only team that can threaten any of the EU's Big Three. 

Gale Force eSports 5-2 (19-8) - Grade C: What do you say about the team that beat Tempo Storm, but lost to Team Freedom? The C is largely because I expected them to be in 3rd place, and they have not yet had a defining match. This is the team with the most talent, to be sure, but their "four flex and a support" was exploited by Team Freedom. As time goes on, however, expect Michael Udall to have this figured out, and this team may well end on top of NA, for whatever that is worth. 

B-Step 4-3 (15-14) - Grade B: To be honest, I expected B-Step to be at the bottom. They had and lost Glaurung, who I consider to be the best player in NA. Their sponsor dropped them. Much of the meta seems to have passed them by. That they are not only in contention, but looking incredibly strong, should worry the top three in NA. 

Superstars 3-4 (11-14) - Grade C-: Right now, Superstars is right below where I expected them to be, which was fourth place. The core of this team of Srey, Faye, and Iakona is strong, and Goku and Hosty have really helped this team rise from the 7th/8th spot they found themselves in during fall, but they have not been able to put together any consistency. They will look strong and unbeatable in one game, and get crushed the next. The talent is here for Superstars to be a top three team, and other teams have to fear them. It may be only a matter of time before the meta clicks with this team. 

Team Freedom 2-5 (11-18) - Grade D: If I were grading on their match against GFE, B+. If I were grading on their match against previously winless No Tomorrow, F-. This team has shown flashes of brilliance, but the common thread among the bottom three teams is how easily an inconsistent Superstars team dominated them. Team Freedom is safe from the basement, for now, but this team lacks identity and no one (save GFE) feels that they have to prepare for them.

Team Naventic 1-6 (8-20) - Grade F: What happened? Really. I want to know. Naventic was a universal pick for top three. Bkid left GFE to join this team. Aside from a win against No Tomorrow, and a 2-3 loss to Tempo Storm, Naventic has been humiliated by every other team here! In an interview for HGC, Fan (former Naventic player) mentioned that this team has a specific weak link. They had better identify it fast, because the Crucible is warming up, and their name is being called.

No Tomorrow 1-6 (6-19) - Grade F: Is this a pro team or a thrown together team playing Master Level/GM Level Team League? Aside from taking a series against Team Freedom, No Tomorrow looks like a shadow of what they showed in the qualifiers. If they are not careful, they will have to work on qualifying again, because UTA HOTS, current Open Division leaders have stated that No Tomorrow is in their sights for the Crucible. And, to be honest, No Tomorrow has not looked like they belong. 

I have previously called the bottom three in NA the "Oh Somebody Kill Me Please" group. The problem with NA isn't at the top; it's at the bottom. Because there are three NA teams that the top doesn't have to take seriously, NA is woefully unprepared for what is coming in EU. Yes, in EU, Synergy and beGenius have struggled, but they haven't played poorly. Team Freedom, Naventic, and No Tomorrow haven't just played poorly, they have had moments of Bronze level play, which I am very familiar with since I play in Bronze. 

Unless all 8 teams in NA are teams that have to be prepared for and taken seriously, the NA professional Heroes of the Storm Scene will suffer. Blizzard should send all three of the bottom teams to the Crucible, if for no other reason, than to light a fire under their collective asses and wake them up. 

I sincerely hope these teams see this review and get mad. I want them to be good. I want the HGC to succeed. And right now, NA is faltering and looks to be humiliated at the Clash. I only hope I'm wrong.

Grading the teams after #HGC Phase 1 for Europe

So, after the completion of the first round robin of the Heroes Global Championship, let's take stock of the teams. Most of the time, when people use a grade system, they forget what the grades actually mean, so, before I give out my grades to the teams in EU, here's a reminder of what the A through F grade scale actually means and how I will apply it:

A: Outstanding, far exceeding average expectations
B: Good, or above average of what was expected
C: Average, performed exactly as expected
D: Below Average, did not to live up to expectations
F: Failure, performed far below average, extreme disappointment of expectations

Got it? C is a good grade. It means that a team did exactly as we expected them to do. OK, let's go!

Misfits 7-0 (21-5) - Grade A+: Everyone expected Misfits to be good, but to record 3-0 sweeps over both Team Dignitas and Team Expert, I don't think anyone expected that. Misfits head into the clash the clear favorites to win, and have established themselves as real contenders for the Mid-Season Brawl.

FNATIC 6-1 (20-9) - Grade B: Now, before you all get upset, this is slightly below where they expected to finish. That said, aside from their 3-2 loss to Misfits, FNATIC dominated every match, and I think people are still in awe over their win vs. MVP Black at Blizzcon.

Team Dignitas 5-2 (17-8) - Grade C-: No one is more upset with Dignitas' performance than Dignitas themselves. They spent all of 2016 at the top of EU, and to finish third is a disappointment. They are going to the Clash, but they have work to do if they want to live up to their own high standards. Right now, Dignitas is in danger of missing out of global competitions for the first time since we have had globals.

Team Expert 4-3 (15-9) - Grade B-: Good things were expected of the former Two Bees Determined, which is why Expert signed them. They didn't drop a map in their first three matches, but they have to be slightly disappointed with their performance vs. the top 3. Good start, now they have to figure out what they do next.

Playing Ducks 3-4 (12-16) - Grade A-: How can I give Playing Ducks an A-? Because this was a team that was supposed to roll over, and they were in every match. They are not in the top of EU, yet, but they are on their way. Their performance against the top 3, not getting swept by any of them, and their upset of Tricked eSport shows that it's only a matter of time before the Ducks are serious contenders in EU.

Tricked eSport 2-5 (11-16) - Grade B-: In their last match against Misfits, Tricked demonstrated that they are just coming into their own and, like the Ducks above them, they are a serious threat each time you face them. This relatively new team is scary and is only getting better with each match.

Synergy 1-6 (5-19) - Grade D: Not only was Synergy not competitive, but nothing they ever did was compelling or scary. Synergy played uninspired all through out phase 1, and they continue to lack a solid team identity. They are mechanically solid, and they do not make a lot of mistakes, but they need to figure out who they are, and fast.

beGenius 0-7 (2-21) - Grade F: I want to give beGenius a higher grade, because when you watch them play, one match at a time, they do not make big mistakes. They draft competitively, they play smart, they just get outplayed by the more experienced teams. In interviews, some of the other players in EU said that beGenius was a bit of a surprise to make the league. When I watch their games, I see all the potential in the world in this team, and they do need time to come together, but they are running out of time, fast. Between now and April, beGenius need to figure out what they are doing and who they are.

Remember, we have all of Phase 2 to go through before Playoffs, the Crucible, and the Mid-Season Brawl. A lot can happen. Every team in EU is a threat because they are all really good, and even Synergy and beGenius cannot be taken lightly as the skill gap narrows with each match.

NA grades tomorrow. Spoiler alert: they won't be as kind.

Predictions for Week 5 #HGC EU Feb. 17 and 18, 2017

So, after five weeks, we are at the last week of play before the Western Clash, and it's kind of a bad week to be an EU fan. None of the top four are playing each other, which means each of the top four are playing one of the bottom four, and there is a strong chance that this will be a weekend of sweeps.

With only eight games this week (no Sunday games), it's going to feel a little truncated... because it is. Sorry if this isn't hyping it up for you, but I'm not really excited for a series of stomps, and that's pretty much how I see EU going.

Friday, February 17th

Match 1: Playing Ducks vs. FNATIC

This has the most potential to be a match, or at least it would, if FNATIC didn't look so amazingly strong. FNATIC turned in a classic match against Dignitas last week, while the Ducks were destroyed by Dignitas, and then destroyed Synergy. Ducks put up a fight, but FNATIC is just too much and they get the sweep, 3-0.

Match 2: Tricked eSport vs. Misfits

Wow do I feel bad for Tricked eSport! Misfits looks completely unstoppable and this is the match Tricked gets before they have almost two months off to stew and figure out how to climb. Tricked is going to be the most interesting team (along with Expert) to watch in EU as the season progresses, but right now, they are out of their league against EU's number one team. Misfits in a sweep, 3-0.

Saturday, February 18th

Match 1: Team Dignitas vs. beGenius

To be fair to beGenius, they were not ready for this, and they have handled themselves well. Their record does not reflect their play, which has been solid, but solid loses to stellar. No team in the world plays the team fight as well as Dignitas, and they are looking for momentum going into the clash. Dignitas sweeps, 3-0.

Match 2: Synergy vs. Team Expert 

Synergy had a moment last week, and it was pretty special to watch. They showed up for the first game against Playing Ducks, they drafted well, played even better, and stole a game off of the Ducks. Then, Synergy reverted to their unimaginative drafting and play; predictable, boring, and bound to be punished. If you bring predictable against adrd and Expert, the punishment will be extreme. Not only a sweep, but at least one match will clock in at a sub-14 minute time as Expert takes their frustration out from missing the clash on Synergy, 3-0.

Predictions for Week 5 #HGC NA Feb. 17 and 18, 2017

While EU is in a slump this week with no classic matches, and what looks like two days of sweeps, NA sports three very interesting contests out of four. Yes, the participants in the clash are set, just like in EU, but, because of the mess that is the NA #HGC, there are a lot of unanswered questions, and we do not know just how strong each team is, nor where exactly they fit. NA has had some weeks where they offered matches as good as EU, but this is the first week where the NA matches are better.

So, NA fans, rejoice! After the first match, that is...

Friday, February 17th

Match 1: No Tomorrow vs. Gale Force Esports

Gale Force wins 3-0.

What? You wanted analysis? Fine. No Tomorrow beat Team Freedom last week, and Team Freedom has a 3-2 victory over GFE, so in theory, this could be an interesting match. No Tomorrow shook themselves out of a winless stupor and actually looked like they belonged against a team that took matches off of two NA "powerhouses" (TF beat Naventic, too, and their powerhouse status is in serious doubt). But, GFE's dominance of Tempo Storm show them to be a team on a mission, once again, and they look pretty unstoppable. I expect the old No Tomorrow to show up, and the new GFE to keep rolling.

Match 2: B-Step vs. Naventic 

The remaining members of the 2016 Cloud 9 core (everyone do a shot) looked strong against Superstars last week (who also looked strong), and Naventic needs something, anything, to build on. As HGC has gone on, Naventic has looked, well, un-Naventic, with sloppy play that just makes watching them miserable. Expect the threat of relegation to light a fire under the Buechter boys, and Naventic will make a series of it. B-Step wins 3-1, but it's closer.

Saturday, February 18th

Match 1: Tempo Storm vs. Superstars

On paper, this should be a really good match, but we have a few issues that need to be addressed. Tempo Storm was swept by GFE, and how they respond to that is really unknown. Not a team that dwells on setbacks, I hope Tempo comes out swinging looking to prove they are still the top. Superstars looked dominant in their first five games last week, sweeping Naventic and getting a 2-0 lead on B-Step. The casters were even saying that they looked capable of taking Tempo Storm with how they were playing. It fell apart because Faye was out sick and was replaced with a sub, and while Nightmare played out of his mind good at times, mistakes were made. Here's the issue, if you are a fan of Faye's stream (and you should be!), you know she's still sick. I am sure she will be playing on Saturday, but how being sick continues to affect her is a concern for this match. I want to pick Superstars, because they are my favorite team, but I'm going Tempo Storm, and I believe both teams rise to the occasion in a classic 3-2 match.

Match 2: Team Freedom vs. Team 8

Team Freedom, why do you hurt me so? You have played so well, and looked poised to be something interesting, and then you turn in an uninspired performance against No Tomorrow. If a team is ready to compete against EU in two weeks, it's Team 8. Aside from their match against Tempo Storm, Team 8 has been the most consistent, in control team in NA. Glaurung continues to be worthy of praise as his maturity is showing; he is leading and drafting so well, and unlike 2016, you cannot block Glau in the draft as his role and hero pool is such that there is something he can carry on no matter what gets picked and banned. Expect Team Freedom to show up, but Team 8 is ready and hungry, and while a sweep, it will be better than it should be, 3-0 Team 8.

#HGC NA Power Rankings After Four Weeks

At this point, NA is such a mess, that you cannot even successfully rank who is top and who is bottom. The best you can do is divide them into three groups. Why? Well, take just the top three teams, as an example:

• Tempo Storm beat Team 8, but lost to GFE
• Team 8 beat GFE, but lost to Tempo Storm
• GFE beat Tempo Storm, but lost to Team 8 and Team Freedom

How do you pick a clear leader out of that mess? The only thing you can really say is that these are clearly the top three teams, but beyond that, the best you can do is nod towards which team has momentum right now, and that's all this is trying to do.

The Mess At The Top: Tempo Storm 5-1 (15-9); Team 8 5-1 (17-6); Gale Force eSports 4-2 (16-8)

With GFE topping Tempo over the weekend, and Tempo not having looked especially dominant, It's really easy to say that GFE is the strongest team in NA right now, based on momentum. Yes, Team 8 beat them, but the longer the season goes on, the more the "four flex and a support" seems to be working. The only wrinkle is the 2-3 loss to Team Freedom, a team that has looked strong and then turned in major disappointments (we'll get to that).

Team 8 is the most consistent team at the top, fewest losses, and a very strong defining strat based around who Glaurung is playing. Whether he's on Medivh, playing almost as good as adrd in EU, or back on his trademark melee assassins, Team 8 is always scary.

Tempo Storm, having been swept by GFE, looks like they are in a little bit of trouble. Before the match with GFE, they looked consistent, but not in charge. Their victory over Team 8 had shown that they we living up to the hype. GFE sweeping Tempo Storm may be a wake up call because something needs to happen.

Here's the real problem: these three teams are representing NA at the Western Clash, and right now, none of them will be able to take a map off of Misfits, FNATIC, or Team Dignitas. Top level NA HotS would struggle against the 4-6 teams of EU. The only team I see being competitive at the clash is Team 8. Something needs to change before NA sends their best to Poland.

The Very Interesting Middle:  B-Step 3-3 (12-12); Superstars 3-3 (11-11)

The match between B-Step and Superstars this week was a bright spot for NA. B-Step won a match they were supposed to win, as Superstars were playing without Faye, who was and still is very sick, and while Nightmare filled in and played out of his mind, no one believed Superstars could over come this. And yet, they almost did! Superstars, in convincing fashion, took the first two games off of B-Step and had a 2% core wipe that would have been a series win without one of the best range carries in NA.

B-Step and Superstars have shown flashes of brilliance, and they can hang with the big dogs in NA. Both teams need to use the time between Week 5 and Week 6 (which is end of February to mid-April) to figure out how to move forward. These could be the best two team in NA just learning how they need to be.

Oh Somebody Kill Me Please! I Want To Die!: Team Freedom 2-4 (11-15); No Tomorrow 1-5 (6-16); Team Naventic 1-5 (6-17)

Why I have I named this group this? Well...




Seriously, watching the bottom of NA #HGC League play is just awful. It's almost a punishment after watching EU.

I have very little investment in this series. After @FNATIC vs. @TeamDignitas, watching NA is like eating brussel sprouts after dessert #HGC

— Anne Elise Morrigan (@anne_elise) February 13, 2017

So, yeah, start Sunday with a classic, followed by Tempo turning in a weak performance, and the last match of the weekend was No Tomorrow vs. Team Freedom. Yuck. And not to leave Naventic out of this, they turned in their routine stinkers, like Zuna, somehow getting picked off on Medivh, in the middle of nowhere because he was out of Raven form for... reasons?

How do you get caught out as Medivh? Why aren't you in Raven form Zuna? #HGChttps://t.co/dXfVz0dusS

— Anne Elise Morrigan (@anne_elise) February 12, 2017

Bad drafting, bad positioning, what looks like serious tilting, and a series of clusterfuck moments make watching these three teams play just... painful. Set aside Team Freedom taking down GFE, and none of these three have looked like they belong here. Naventic isn't scary; they got swept by Superstars, as Faye was already getting sick. Team Freedom and No Tomorrow lack an identity, and while there are good players on all three teams (and everyone of these 15 players are worlds better than I will ever be), as a fan of NA, this is why the scene is so week.

In EU, the teams have to prepare for the bottom. Synergy and beGenius don't make a lot of mistakes; they just get out played, little by little.

In NA, games from No Tomorrow, Team Freedom, and Naventic are full of mistakes, misplays, and letting Tassadar through without picking him up on the first pick. Don't judge a region by the top; judge it by the bottom.

After all that...

So, in this mess, how would I actually rank NA? Well, don't hold me to it, but...

1. Team 8
2. Gale Force eSports
3. Tempo Storm
4. B-Step
5. Superstars
6. Team Freedom
7. No Tomorrow
8. Naventic

And that's if I use 1-8. If I were to rank it as I please, well, you just finished reading that, didn't you?

#HGC EU Power Rankings After Four Weeks

Before we get too far into this, EU is superior to NA in every way. It pains me, as an NA fan, to write that, but watching even the lower half of EU play is so much better than watching NA matches. For as low as I am going to rank beGenius and Synergy, watching their games is still better than watching a lot of NA matches. OK, on to the rankings:

Leading the Pack: Misfits 6-0 (18-3) 

This is a team on a mission that is not only poised to dominate the Western Clash, but is looking like a serious contender for the Brawl. Aside from a 3-2 series against FNATIC, Misfits has not faced a serious challenge all season long. Four of their six matches have been sweeps, including a sweep of Team Dignitas. Misfits look damn near unstoppable.

So Close, Yet So Far: FNATIC 5-1 (17-8)

While FNATIC is the only team to push Misfits to five games, they have not been as dominant. They needed five to beat Team Dignitas, who was swept by Misfits. FNATIC is the clear number two in EU, and we could look forward to a classic rematch at the Western Clash in the finals. FNATIC is still the team that upset MVP Black at Blizzcon, so they may be capable of beating Misfits, but the difference between these two looks pretty distant right now.

So Good, and Still So Much Work: Team Dignitas 4-2 (14-8)

I have said, repeatedly, no one does a team fight as well as Dignitas. When you watch them play together, they are as good or better than anyone else in the world. They are only slightly behind in drafting and mechanics, and often their team play makes up for it. They have fallen from top in EU last year to third, and that doesn't seem like that much, but at this point, Dignitas will miss the Midseason Brawl if they don't figure out how to compete with FNATIC.

It Just Takes Some Time, Little Girl, You're In The Middle: Team Expert 3-3 (12-9); Playing Ducks 3-3 (11-13)

Team Expert started out 3-0, with three sweeps, for a 9-0 match record. Since then, the former Two Bees Determined have struggled in three straight matches against the top three. adrd remains one of the scariest drafters and the top Medivh player in the world, but unless they can figure out how to compete with the top, who all topped Expert 3-1, they will remain in the middle.

Playing Ducks is just below Expert, but this is a solid team poised to move up and challenge. They have the same basic problem as Expert - unable to compete with the top three - but they lack an identity and have nothing that scares other teams the way Expert does. The Ducks need to figure out what they do better than other teams, or they will just remain in the middle.  

We're A Lot Better Than This: Tricked eSport 2-4 (9-13)

Alex the Pro G is the scariest warrior in EU and this team has been competitive, but they are still not really a solid team... yet. Once Tricked figures themselves out, look out because this team will be scary. Don't be surprised if, after the Mid Season Brawl, Tricked is pushing into the top half of EU.

Bring On The Crucible! Synergy 1-5 (5-16); beGenius 0-6 (2-18)

In week 1, Synergy beat beGenius 3-1. Two things to note: this was the last time Synergy looked capable of taking a set, and beGenius only picked up one other map win since week 1. Both teams are heading for the Crucible, and there is little they can do. Synergy showed a flash of... something... in one game against Playing Ducks, but then reverted to their old form:

Seriously, @SynergyHOTS, game one, you looked like a different team, and that's a good thing. Be a better version of you #HGC.

— Anne Elise Morrigan (@anne_elise) February 12, 2017

So, Falstad ban, draft Varian and Hammer, give up Tassadar and Valla... um @SynergyHOTS? You are starting to look like the old you #HGC

— Anne Elise Morrigan (@anne_elise) February 12, 2017

And that is end of game 1 to draft of game 2.

beGenius, actually took the time to take exception to me calling them out on Twitter:

@anne_elise @TRICKED_eSport That's not kind at all this "as predicted" 😰😭👎

— beGenius ESC (@beGeniusESC) February 11, 2017

@anne_elise @TRICKED_eSport We will try to !!

— beGenius ESC (@beGeniusESC) February 11, 2017

So, beGenius has heart and is trying, but two map wins in six matches, and they just look over matched right now. To be fair, neither Synergy nor beGenius have played particularly poorly (we'll get to that in NA), but the six teams above them are just playing worlds apart. Likely both teams will win their Crucible matches, largely because they have been playing the best in EU and not playing in the Open, but these two teams are so far away from being anywhere near contention.

No Tomorrow Has a Slim Chance to Make the #HGC Western Clash

Yesterday, Cauthonluck went on Twitter to talk about how important every game is in the HGC, writing:

There is still a mathematical chance for every single North American team to make the Western Clash –even No Tomorrow, every game matters.

— CauthonLuck (@CauthonLuck) February 9, 2017

Now, it's interesting that the 0-4 No Tomorrow still has a chance. In order for them to make the Clash, a lot of things have to happen:

1. No Tomorrow must win all three of their remaining matches.
2. No Tomorrow must sweep all of their remaining matches. 
3. No more teams can attain 4 match wins. Tempo Storm and Team 8 are 4-0 and 4-1 respectively.

So, what is that going to take? Well, here are the current NA standings:

1. Tempo Storm 4-0 (12-6)

2. Team 8 4-1 (14-6)

3. Gale Force eSports 3-2 (13-8)

4. Superstars 2-2 (6-8)

5. B-Step 2-3 (9-10)

6. Team Freedom 2-3 (10-12)

7. Naventic 1-3 (6-11)

8. No Tomorrow 0-4 (3-12)

Here's the best possible outcome of the last ten matches for No Tomorrow. 

Friday 2/10: No Tomorrow beats Tempo Storm 3-0; Naventic beats Superstars 3-2

Saturday 2/11: Superstars beats B-Step 3-2; Team 8 beats Naventic 3-0

Sunday 2/12: Tempo Storm beats GFE 3-0; No Tomorrow beats Team Freedom 3-0

Friday 2/17: No Tomorrow beats GFE 3-0; Naventic beats B-Step 3-2

Saturday 2/18: Tempo Storm beats Superstars 3-0; Team 8 beats Team Freedom 3-0

If that happens, here are the standing going into the clash:

1. Tempo Storm 6-1 (18-9)

2. Team 8 6-1 (20-6)

3. No Tomorrow 3-4 (12-12)

4. Gale Force eSports 3-4 (13-14)

5. Naventic 3-4 (12-18)

6. Superstars 3-4 (11-16)

7. B-Step 2-5 (13-16)

8. Team Freedom 2-5 (10-18)

If this happens, the head-to-head tie breakers are thrown out because:

• No Tomorrow beat GFE; lost to Naventic and Superstars
• GFE beat Naventic and Superstars; lost to No Tomorrow
• Naventic beat No Tomorrow and Superstars; lost to GFE
• Superstars beat No Tomorrow; lost to GFE and Naventic

Since there is no way to resolve the head-to-head between the four teams with three wins, the next tie-breaker is 3-0 victories:

1. No Tomorrow 3
2. GFE 2
3. Naventic 0
4. Superstars 0

Basically, everything has to go perfect for No Tomorrow to make the Clash. Drop one map, and GFE is either in or there will be a playoff game. 

In all likelihood, this is a moot point. No Tomorrow will not beat Tempo Storm, Team 8, or Team Freedom. To pull the upsets over the top two teams when those teams have been so dominant is highly unlikely, and Team Freedom, while not consistent, has been very strong in many of their matches. 

Is there a path for No Tomorrow? Yes. Will they be able to walk that path? It would take an act of God.

Update: Tempo Storm swept No Tomorrow (as predicted), and they have been eliminated from the clash. On a related note, Superstars swept Naventic and they are also eliminated. If GFE wins out, they go to the clash. If Superstars wins out, GFE has to drop a game for Superstars to go to the clash. 

Predictions for Week 4 #HGC NA Feb. 10-12, 2017

While EU is pretty figured out, NA is a mess in the middle. Cauthonluck of Tempo Storm tweeted out this evening:

There is still a mathematical chance for every single North American team to make the Western Clash –even No Tomorrow, every game matters.

— CauthonLuck (@CauthonLuck) February 9, 2017

And he's not wrong. Every NA team can make the clash, even though I have gone back and forth on this. That being said, we should have a pretty good idea of who isn't going after Friday.

Friday February 10th

Match 1: Tempo Storm vs No Tomorrow

Remember that Tweet from just a second ago? Cauthonluck doesn't want his team taking No Tomorrow lightly because they do have something to fight for. Tempo is in control of their destiny, and a win all but assures that they go to the clash, and it absolutely eliminates No Tomorrow from the clash as there are three teams with three wins, and the best No Tomorrow could finish after losing this match is 2-5. Tempo Storm avoids their usual slow start, and No Tomorrow not only is eliminated from the Clash, but they are assured a spot in the Crucible. Tempo sweeps, 3-0.

Match 2: Naventic vs Superstars

What happened to Naventic? Lots of people had Naventic fighting for a top spot in HGC, but honestly, I was not one of them. Yes, I think Naventic is good. Yes, I think they are dangerous and they can beat anyone at any time. However, since Fan left, Naventic is more bark than bite, and Fan openly said someone on this team is a huge weak link in HGC interviews. Superstars have their own struggles with consistency, but this is a team where Superstars has the better player at every position, and if Hosty drafts well, Srey calls the shots, Faye and Goku wreck fools, and Iakona doesn't wiff an ancestral like he did last week (sorry, I had to mention it), this is an easy win for Superstars. Superstars take it 3-1.

Saturday February 11th

Match 1: Superstars vs. B-Step 

Speaking of what happened to a former powerhouse, what happened to B-Step? Similar to Naventic, they were defanged when Glaurung left. k1Pro can talk about being the best ranged assassin in NA, and he did, but he isn't. That being said, this is a really good match up for B-Step. The problem is, B-Step won their matches last week by pulling out old strats, and Superstars knows those comps and can more than handle them.  It's a competitive match, but Superstars takes it 3-1.

Match 2: Team 8 vs. Naventic

This is the nail in Naventic's coffin. Team 8 has been the most dominant NA team, even with their one loss to unbeaten Tempo Storm. Open up a seat in the Crucible because Naventic is heading there with a 1-5 record after this match. Team 8 pounds them in a sweep, 3-0.

Sunday February 12th

Match 1: Tempo Storm vs. Gale Force eSports

NA match of the weekend! GFE has to win this because Superstars is going to win two and Team Freedom has a head to head edge against them. If GFE can beat Tempo, then they are in the Clash. That said, no one is beating Tempo Storm right now in NA. GFE will make a series of it, but it's 3-2 Tempo Storm wins.

Match 2: Team Freedom vs. No Tomorrow

These teams had a ton of hype from the other teams in interviews. No Tomorrow was picked as a contender for the clash by a lot of observers of the NA scene. Team Freedom has lived up to some of that, but No Tomorrow has only managed three map wins in four matches. It doesn't get any better for No Tomorrow, already eliminated on Friday by Tempo Storm, Team Freedom needs a statement win, and they get it with a 3-0 over No Tomorrow.

Now, I don't usually do this, but after this weekend, if my predictions go as planned, the NA standings are thus:

1. Tempo Storm 6-0
2. Team 8 5-1
3. Superstars 4-2
4. Team Freedom 3-3 (they beat GFE, so they get the tie breaker)
5. GFE 3-3
6. B-Step 2-4
7. Naventic 1-5
8. No Tomorrow 0-6

If this happens, the NA participants in the Western Clash will be Tempo Storm, Team 8, and the third spot goes to Superstars, Team Freedom, or GFE. If this happens, I will do a special post explaining what those three teams each need to get a spot in the Clash.

Predictions for Week 4 #HGC EU Feb. 10-12, 2017

After three weeks, I'm 17-1 picking the EU matches. A lot of this is due to the giant gulf between the top and bottom of EU, with very little wiggle room. It's hard to argue against Misfits, FNATIC, and Dignitas as the top three, with Expert coming in fourth. This makes EU really easy to pick. So, what does week four look like? Well:

Friday February 10th

Match 1: Team Dignitas vs Playing Ducks

Not hard to pick. Team Dignitas has the best team synergy in EU, and possibly in the world. They may lose a game in draft, or they may get out played, but, even including Korea and China, no team plays as well together as Dig. It's Duck season and Dig is prepared to feast. Team Dignitas takes it in a sweep, 3-0. 

Match 2: Misfits vs beGenius 

Oh, do I feel sorry for beGenius! Easily the lowest team in EU right now, not having won a match, and taking on the hottest team in EU? Misfits wins 3-0 and beGenius is a lock for the Crucible. 

Saturday February 11th

Match 1: beGenius vs Tricked eSport

Alex the Pro G has gotten his team out of the basement. With their victory over Synergy last week, they are pretty much assured to finish ahead of the Russian/Ukrainian team. Tricked takes two in a row, and poor beGenius falls to 0-6 as they get swept, again, 3-0 by Tricked. This keeps Tricked out of the Crucible, barring a miracle. 

Match 2: Team Expert vs Misfits

All of Expert's hopes to make the Clash ride on beating Misfits. That said, they could not get it done against Dignitas (Misfits swept them), nor FNATIC (Misfits edged them out). If there is a team in EU that can challenge the German powerhouse of Misfits, it is Expert. Their unusual comps and smart play will make this a competitive match, but not that competitive. Misfits remains a team on a mission as they take Expert in four, 3-1. 

Sunday February 12th

Match 1: Team Dignitas vs FNATIC

The top four teams play each other this weekend in EU, and the second match is the oldest grudge match in EU Heroes of the Storm. Dignitas, as I said before, is the best team play team in the world (come at me Korea), but FNATIC has superior mechanical play and drafts as well as anyone. Also, take into account that Misfits swept Dig, but had to go to five to beat FNATIC. All signs point to a FNATIC victory, and I tend to agree. FNATIC 3-2 over Team Dignitas, but don't be surprised if this is the one I get wrong. 

Match 2: Synergy vs Playing Ducks

Playing Ducks look really good against the bottom half of EU. Synergy has looked largely uninspired, managing a meager four map wins in five matches. The Ducks avoid the hunters, and Synergy is sent to the crucible with beGenius. Ducks win 3-1.  

#HGC NA Power Rankings After Three Weeks

Leading The Pack: Tempo Storm 4-0 (12-6) - Always winning, but rarely dominant 

Most of their series were 3-2 wins, and often, Tempo drops game one as they try to figure out their opponents. That said, they win every set, and they handed Team 8 their only loss. It's hard to argue that they are not still the top of the pack in NA, even if they don't look as strong as they should for their position.

In The Hunt: Team 8 4-1 (14-6) - Looked dominant in opening matches; beat GFE on their best maps. Lost to Tempo Storm. 

If Tempo Storm is all alone at the top, Team 8 is all alone in second. The NA shake out in league play has given us a clear 1 and 2, and if things stay as they are, Team 8 will be joining Tempo Storm at the Western Clash and the Brawl. Glaurung has been the best at out-drafting and out-playing other teams, and he seems to be taking this more seriously than ever. Team 8 is for real.

The Pack Of I Don't Even Know What: Gale Force eSports 3-2 (13-8); Superstars 2-2 (6-8); Team Freedom 2-3 (10-12); B-Step 2-3 (9-10)

OK, so GFE beat Superstars, Superstars beat Team Freedom, Team Freedom beat GFE, GFE beat B-Step, B-Step beat Team Freedom. If you can work out from that who has the lead in this pack, you are better than I.

GFE should come out of this pack in third, but their "four flex and a support" has some roster depth issues. Superstars has the most experience as a team, but Srey has said he cannot figure this meta out, and Hosty drafted an 0-3 series against GFE. Team Freedom looks strong twice, but Superstars and B-Step made them look like they belong in the Open Division. B-Step's losses are to Tempo, T8, and GFE, and they are the only team to make Tempo Storm look dominant, but they crushed No Tomorrow and Freedom.

Confused? You should be. NA is a mess in the 3-6 slot. Place bets on GFE and Superstars, but any of these four could wind up at the Clash or facing relegation in the Crucible.

Disappointing: Team Naventic 1-3 (6-11) - um, they took Tempo Storm to 5 games? 

Everyone had Naventic competing for a top three spot. GFE's sweep of them made them look horrible. Team Freedom made them look like they deserved to go to the Crucible. Their only win was against the very unimpressive No Tomorrow, and they still needed five games to get it. Naventic has nothing left at this point. They could come back, but they won't.

Should Be Heading Back To The Open Division: No Tomorrow 0-4 (3-12) - Just, ugh. 

I know I should find something good to say. They took Naventic to five games? Is that good? Their only other map win was against Superstars when Superstars had a bit of a throw. This team looked solid in the qualifiers, has received a ton of praise from other teams, even was ranked 4th/5th in a lot of preseason rankings. No Tomorrow may not have a tomorrow if they don't get it figured out and fast. UTA is rising in the Open Division and hungry to break in, and I doubt they will choose to face Naventic.

NA is a mess right now. When people in Twitch chat type "NA LOL," the play we've seen out of No Tomorrow justifies that attitude.

#HGC EU Power Rankings After Three Weeks

Leading The Pack: Misfits 4-0 (12-3) - Key wins against FNATIC and Team Dignitas

Before league play started, I said that Misfits was on a mission after losing a tie-breaker and missing Blizzcon last year. Misfits has been in charge of every match, and they have already defeated the other two top contenders. The only top team they haven't faced is Team Expert, and that will happen next week. Misfits is a lock for the Western Clash and the Mid Season Brawl.

In The Hunt: FNATIC 4-1 (14-6); Team Dignitas 3-1 (9-4) - Both have beaten Team Expert and lost to Misfits

Right now, FNATIC and Dignitas are lagging behind Misfits. Both are likely heading to the Western Clash, but they will be fighting it out for the second spot in the Mid-Season Brawl. FNATIC is slightly ahead of Dig, as Dig was swept by Misfits, where as FNATIC took Misfits to five games.

Chasing: Team Expert 3-2 (12-6); Playing Ducks 2-2 (7-9) - No key wins or losses. 

Expert was on a tear at the start, winning three matches without dropping a map. Expert played well against FNATIC and Dignitas, but lost both.

Playing Ducks have beaten the lower teams, but they haven't been able to play with the contenders.

Both teams are likely to stay where they are - not in danger of relegation; not going to international competition.

In Trouble: Tricked eSport 1-4 (6-13) - Beating Synergy keeps them out of the bottom. 

Alex the Pro G is one of the best players in Europe, and the longer this team plays, the better they are getting. They have to remain ahead in early games, or they tend to falter. Bad calls are hurting this team right now; over-aggression needs to be tempered.

Heading to the Crucible: Synergy 1-4 (4-13); beGenius 0-4 (2-12) - Neither team has shown anything special. 

Right now, Synergy and beGenius are clearly at the bottom. Synergy's only win and three of their four map wins, came against beGenius. Synergy has been swept three times already. Their one other map win came against Tricked, and that had more to do with Tricked making a bad call than with Synergy making a good choice.

beGenius just cannot figure it out. They haven't played terribly, but they have just been outplayed each and every match. Often losing slightly in the draft, and then losing harder as the games go on. Only two map wins in four matches, this is the team most likely to lose their relegation match.

Predictions for Week 3 #HGC NA Feb 3-5, 2017

The split in NA is a little wild: two teams each at 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-3, making for a clear reading of who is on top and who is heading for relegation. What's more each of these pairs face each other in their first matches! How is that for planning?

That being said, some teams came out swinging last week, and nothing is certain or safe in NA, largely because the meta still isn't settled. I am currently 8-4 in picking NA matches, and three of those misses are from picking against Team 8. Here's what's going to happen this weekend... I hope!

Friday, February 3rd

Match 1: No Tomorrow vs BStep

The current seventh and eighth teams face off as both are in serious threat of a relegation match. No Tomorrow is a team a lot of people are still high on, and I don't see it. BStep has three former world champions on it, and managed to go against Tempo Storm in week one for a 3-2 match. BStep gets their first win, 3-1.

Match 2: Superstars vs. Gale Force eSports

The current third and fourth place teams face off. Superstars, in week 1, made Team Freedom look like they didn't belong. Then, last week, Team Freedom beat GFE in a shocking upset. I think, if Srey has the draft figured out, Superstars can exploit the lack of defined roles on GFE and take this series. GFE is strong, but Team Freedom gave NA the blueprint to take them down. Superstars in a close series, 3-2.

Saturday, February 4th

Match 1: Team Freedom vs Naventic

The current fifth and sixth place teams face off. After 0-2 starts, both Team Freedom and Naventic got their first wins last week. Both were 3-2 matches, but while Freedom exploited GFE in the draft, Naventic looked lost for two and a half games against No Tomorrow. I still think that Naventic is a potential contender, and Team Freedom isn't ready. Naventic finds their footing and pulls even with a 3-1 victory.

Match 2: Tempo Storm vs Team 8

The current first and second teams face off. Everyone expected Tempo Storm to be at the top after dominating NA last year as Murloc Geniuses. No one, except Team 8, expected Team 8 to be undefeated. Tempo Storm looked weak in their first two matches, where as Team 8 has looked strong and in control in every match, only dropping a single map. I'm done picking against them. Team 8 takes sole possession of first in a 3-2 match.

Sunday, February 5th

Match 1: Gale Force eSports vs Team 8

I will have serious concerns about GFE's four player flex until I see it work consistently. Fresh off of take down of Tempo, Team 8 is still hungry and GFE is a challenging meal. Team 8, gets it done, and by the end of the weekend are in sole possession of first with wins against the other three top teams, 3-2.

Match 2: BStep vs Team Freedom

Like No Tomorrow, I do not see Team Freedom as ready for prime time, a victory against GFE notwithstanding. BStep moves closer to a contender position as they get a hold of the meta, and push Team Freedom to the bottom of the heap, 3-1.

Predictions for Week 3 #HGC EU Feb. 2-5, 2017

Over two weeks, I am 12-0 picking games in EU. 100%! This is probably going to be the week that changes. Great match ups at the top this week, so here we go:

Friday, February 3rd

Match 1: Playing Ducks vs Tricked eSport 

This is the match that gets Tricked (0-3) into the win column. It is only a matter of time before a team led by AlexTheProG starts winning, and while Playing Ducks looked solid last week, TRC really looked to be improving. I may regret this, but Tricked takes it, 3-1.

Match 2: Be Genius vs FNATIC

Simply put, beGenius is not ready for the team that upset MVP Black. They looked like they were getting better last week, but that improvement comes to a halt at the hands of FNATIC. FNATIC wins 3-0.

Saturday, February 4th

Match 1: Synergy vs Misfits

Speaking of teams looking like they were coming to life, Synergy had some good plays last week in two losses, but the Russian/Ukrainian dream team is not a match for Misfits. Misfits win easily, 3-0.

Match 2: Team Dignitas vs Team Expert

While sitting at 3-0, Team Expert (formerly Two Bees Determined) has won all of their games, not dropping a map to three of the bottom four teams. Expert has never been able to get it together against the top three in EU of Dig, FNATIC, and Misfits. Sadly, for now, that trend continues. Dignitas edges out Experts, 3-2.

Sunday, February 5th

Match 1: FNATIC vs Team Expert

The second test for Expert as they want to be seen as a top contender for the Western Clash, but like Dig, FNATIC is going to be ready. Remember, Dig and FNATIC both have a loss, but they both lost to Misfits. Expert just isn't quite ready. FNATIC brings Expert down to earth, 3-1.

Match 2: Tricked eSport vs Synergy 

The bad news keeps coming for Synergy, and the good news keeps coming for Tricked. I'm willing to bet that Synergy has put all of their focus into playing Misfits, and as Tricked is coming together, they will continue to surge out of last place at the expense of Synergy. Tricked takes the match 3-1.