No Tomorrow Has a Slim Chance to Make the #HGC Western Clash

Yesterday, Cauthonluck went on Twitter to talk about how important every game is in the HGC, writing:

There is still a mathematical chance for every single North American team to make the Western Clash –even No Tomorrow, every game matters.

— CauthonLuck (@CauthonLuck) February 9, 2017

Now, it's interesting that the 0-4 No Tomorrow still has a chance. In order for them to make the Clash, a lot of things have to happen:

1. No Tomorrow must win all three of their remaining matches.
2. No Tomorrow must sweep all of their remaining matches. 
3. No more teams can attain 4 match wins. Tempo Storm and Team 8 are 4-0 and 4-1 respectively.

So, what is that going to take? Well, here are the current NA standings:

1. Tempo Storm 4-0 (12-6)

2. Team 8 4-1 (14-6)

3. Gale Force eSports 3-2 (13-8)

4. Superstars 2-2 (6-8)

5. B-Step 2-3 (9-10)

6. Team Freedom 2-3 (10-12)

7. Naventic 1-3 (6-11)

8. No Tomorrow 0-4 (3-12)

Here's the best possible outcome of the last ten matches for No Tomorrow. 

Friday 2/10: No Tomorrow beats Tempo Storm 3-0; Naventic beats Superstars 3-2

Saturday 2/11: Superstars beats B-Step 3-2; Team 8 beats Naventic 3-0

Sunday 2/12: Tempo Storm beats GFE 3-0; No Tomorrow beats Team Freedom 3-0

Friday 2/17: No Tomorrow beats GFE 3-0; Naventic beats B-Step 3-2

Saturday 2/18: Tempo Storm beats Superstars 3-0; Team 8 beats Team Freedom 3-0

If that happens, here are the standing going into the clash:

1. Tempo Storm 6-1 (18-9)

2. Team 8 6-1 (20-6)

3. No Tomorrow 3-4 (12-12)

4. Gale Force eSports 3-4 (13-14)

5. Naventic 3-4 (12-18)

6. Superstars 3-4 (11-16)

7. B-Step 2-5 (13-16)

8. Team Freedom 2-5 (10-18)

If this happens, the head-to-head tie breakers are thrown out because:

• No Tomorrow beat GFE; lost to Naventic and Superstars
• GFE beat Naventic and Superstars; lost to No Tomorrow
• Naventic beat No Tomorrow and Superstars; lost to GFE
• Superstars beat No Tomorrow; lost to GFE and Naventic

Since there is no way to resolve the head-to-head between the four teams with three wins, the next tie-breaker is 3-0 victories:

1. No Tomorrow 3
2. GFE 2
3. Naventic 0
4. Superstars 0

Basically, everything has to go perfect for No Tomorrow to make the Clash. Drop one map, and GFE is either in or there will be a playoff game. 

In all likelihood, this is a moot point. No Tomorrow will not beat Tempo Storm, Team 8, or Team Freedom. To pull the upsets over the top two teams when those teams have been so dominant is highly unlikely, and Team Freedom, while not consistent, has been very strong in many of their matches. 

Is there a path for No Tomorrow? Yes. Will they be able to walk that path? It would take an act of God.

Update: Tempo Storm swept No Tomorrow (as predicted), and they have been eliminated from the clash. On a related note, Superstars swept Naventic and they are also eliminated. If GFE wins out, they go to the clash. If Superstars wins out, GFE has to drop a game for Superstars to go to the clash.