Predictions for Week 4 #HGC NA Feb. 10-12, 2017

While EU is pretty figured out, NA is a mess in the middle. Cauthonluck of Tempo Storm tweeted out this evening:

There is still a mathematical chance for every single North American team to make the Western Clash –even No Tomorrow, every game matters.

— CauthonLuck (@CauthonLuck) February 9, 2017

And he's not wrong. Every NA team can make the clash, even though I have gone back and forth on this. That being said, we should have a pretty good idea of who isn't going after Friday.

Friday February 10th

Match 1: Tempo Storm vs No Tomorrow

Remember that Tweet from just a second ago? Cauthonluck doesn't want his team taking No Tomorrow lightly because they do have something to fight for. Tempo is in control of their destiny, and a win all but assures that they go to the clash, and it absolutely eliminates No Tomorrow from the clash as there are three teams with three wins, and the best No Tomorrow could finish after losing this match is 2-5. Tempo Storm avoids their usual slow start, and No Tomorrow not only is eliminated from the Clash, but they are assured a spot in the Crucible. Tempo sweeps, 3-0.

Match 2: Naventic vs Superstars

What happened to Naventic? Lots of people had Naventic fighting for a top spot in HGC, but honestly, I was not one of them. Yes, I think Naventic is good. Yes, I think they are dangerous and they can beat anyone at any time. However, since Fan left, Naventic is more bark than bite, and Fan openly said someone on this team is a huge weak link in HGC interviews. Superstars have their own struggles with consistency, but this is a team where Superstars has the better player at every position, and if Hosty drafts well, Srey calls the shots, Faye and Goku wreck fools, and Iakona doesn't wiff an ancestral like he did last week (sorry, I had to mention it), this is an easy win for Superstars. Superstars take it 3-1.

Saturday February 11th

Match 1: Superstars vs. B-Step 

Speaking of what happened to a former powerhouse, what happened to B-Step? Similar to Naventic, they were defanged when Glaurung left. k1Pro can talk about being the best ranged assassin in NA, and he did, but he isn't. That being said, this is a really good match up for B-Step. The problem is, B-Step won their matches last week by pulling out old strats, and Superstars knows those comps and can more than handle them.  It's a competitive match, but Superstars takes it 3-1.

Match 2: Team 8 vs. Naventic

This is the nail in Naventic's coffin. Team 8 has been the most dominant NA team, even with their one loss to unbeaten Tempo Storm. Open up a seat in the Crucible because Naventic is heading there with a 1-5 record after this match. Team 8 pounds them in a sweep, 3-0.

Sunday February 12th

Match 1: Tempo Storm vs. Gale Force eSports

NA match of the weekend! GFE has to win this because Superstars is going to win two and Team Freedom has a head to head edge against them. If GFE can beat Tempo, then they are in the Clash. That said, no one is beating Tempo Storm right now in NA. GFE will make a series of it, but it's 3-2 Tempo Storm wins.

Match 2: Team Freedom vs. No Tomorrow

These teams had a ton of hype from the other teams in interviews. No Tomorrow was picked as a contender for the clash by a lot of observers of the NA scene. Team Freedom has lived up to some of that, but No Tomorrow has only managed three map wins in four matches. It doesn't get any better for No Tomorrow, already eliminated on Friday by Tempo Storm, Team Freedom needs a statement win, and they get it with a 3-0 over No Tomorrow.

Now, I don't usually do this, but after this weekend, if my predictions go as planned, the NA standings are thus:

1. Tempo Storm 6-0
2. Team 8 5-1
3. Superstars 4-2
4. Team Freedom 3-3 (they beat GFE, so they get the tie breaker)
5. GFE 3-3
6. B-Step 2-4
7. Naventic 1-5
8. No Tomorrow 0-6

If this happens, the NA participants in the Western Clash will be Tempo Storm, Team 8, and the third spot goes to Superstars, Team Freedom, or GFE. If this happens, I will do a special post explaining what those three teams each need to get a spot in the Clash.

Predictions for Week 4 #HGC EU Feb. 10-12, 2017

After three weeks, I'm 17-1 picking the EU matches. A lot of this is due to the giant gulf between the top and bottom of EU, with very little wiggle room. It's hard to argue against Misfits, FNATIC, and Dignitas as the top three, with Expert coming in fourth. This makes EU really easy to pick. So, what does week four look like? Well:

Friday February 10th

Match 1: Team Dignitas vs Playing Ducks

Not hard to pick. Team Dignitas has the best team synergy in EU, and possibly in the world. They may lose a game in draft, or they may get out played, but, even including Korea and China, no team plays as well together as Dig. It's Duck season and Dig is prepared to feast. Team Dignitas takes it in a sweep, 3-0. 

Match 2: Misfits vs beGenius 

Oh, do I feel sorry for beGenius! Easily the lowest team in EU right now, not having won a match, and taking on the hottest team in EU? Misfits wins 3-0 and beGenius is a lock for the Crucible. 

Saturday February 11th

Match 1: beGenius vs Tricked eSport

Alex the Pro G has gotten his team out of the basement. With their victory over Synergy last week, they are pretty much assured to finish ahead of the Russian/Ukrainian team. Tricked takes two in a row, and poor beGenius falls to 0-6 as they get swept, again, 3-0 by Tricked. This keeps Tricked out of the Crucible, barring a miracle. 

Match 2: Team Expert vs Misfits

All of Expert's hopes to make the Clash ride on beating Misfits. That said, they could not get it done against Dignitas (Misfits swept them), nor FNATIC (Misfits edged them out). If there is a team in EU that can challenge the German powerhouse of Misfits, it is Expert. Their unusual comps and smart play will make this a competitive match, but not that competitive. Misfits remains a team on a mission as they take Expert in four, 3-1. 

Sunday February 12th

Match 1: Team Dignitas vs FNATIC

The top four teams play each other this weekend in EU, and the second match is the oldest grudge match in EU Heroes of the Storm. Dignitas, as I said before, is the best team play team in the world (come at me Korea), but FNATIC has superior mechanical play and drafts as well as anyone. Also, take into account that Misfits swept Dig, but had to go to five to beat FNATIC. All signs point to a FNATIC victory, and I tend to agree. FNATIC 3-2 over Team Dignitas, but don't be surprised if this is the one I get wrong. 

Match 2: Synergy vs Playing Ducks

Playing Ducks look really good against the bottom half of EU. Synergy has looked largely uninspired, managing a meager four map wins in five matches. The Ducks avoid the hunters, and Synergy is sent to the crucible with beGenius. Ducks win 3-1.  

#HGC NA Power Rankings After Three Weeks

Leading The Pack: Tempo Storm 4-0 (12-6) - Always winning, but rarely dominant 

Most of their series were 3-2 wins, and often, Tempo drops game one as they try to figure out their opponents. That said, they win every set, and they handed Team 8 their only loss. It's hard to argue that they are not still the top of the pack in NA, even if they don't look as strong as they should for their position.

In The Hunt: Team 8 4-1 (14-6) - Looked dominant in opening matches; beat GFE on their best maps. Lost to Tempo Storm. 

If Tempo Storm is all alone at the top, Team 8 is all alone in second. The NA shake out in league play has given us a clear 1 and 2, and if things stay as they are, Team 8 will be joining Tempo Storm at the Western Clash and the Brawl. Glaurung has been the best at out-drafting and out-playing other teams, and he seems to be taking this more seriously than ever. Team 8 is for real.

The Pack Of I Don't Even Know What: Gale Force eSports 3-2 (13-8); Superstars 2-2 (6-8); Team Freedom 2-3 (10-12); B-Step 2-3 (9-10)

OK, so GFE beat Superstars, Superstars beat Team Freedom, Team Freedom beat GFE, GFE beat B-Step, B-Step beat Team Freedom. If you can work out from that who has the lead in this pack, you are better than I.

GFE should come out of this pack in third, but their "four flex and a support" has some roster depth issues. Superstars has the most experience as a team, but Srey has said he cannot figure this meta out, and Hosty drafted an 0-3 series against GFE. Team Freedom looks strong twice, but Superstars and B-Step made them look like they belong in the Open Division. B-Step's losses are to Tempo, T8, and GFE, and they are the only team to make Tempo Storm look dominant, but they crushed No Tomorrow and Freedom.

Confused? You should be. NA is a mess in the 3-6 slot. Place bets on GFE and Superstars, but any of these four could wind up at the Clash or facing relegation in the Crucible.

Disappointing: Team Naventic 1-3 (6-11) - um, they took Tempo Storm to 5 games? 

Everyone had Naventic competing for a top three spot. GFE's sweep of them made them look horrible. Team Freedom made them look like they deserved to go to the Crucible. Their only win was against the very unimpressive No Tomorrow, and they still needed five games to get it. Naventic has nothing left at this point. They could come back, but they won't.

Should Be Heading Back To The Open Division: No Tomorrow 0-4 (3-12) - Just, ugh. 

I know I should find something good to say. They took Naventic to five games? Is that good? Their only other map win was against Superstars when Superstars had a bit of a throw. This team looked solid in the qualifiers, has received a ton of praise from other teams, even was ranked 4th/5th in a lot of preseason rankings. No Tomorrow may not have a tomorrow if they don't get it figured out and fast. UTA is rising in the Open Division and hungry to break in, and I doubt they will choose to face Naventic.

NA is a mess right now. When people in Twitch chat type "NA LOL," the play we've seen out of No Tomorrow justifies that attitude.

#HGC EU Power Rankings After Three Weeks

Leading The Pack: Misfits 4-0 (12-3) - Key wins against FNATIC and Team Dignitas

Before league play started, I said that Misfits was on a mission after losing a tie-breaker and missing Blizzcon last year. Misfits has been in charge of every match, and they have already defeated the other two top contenders. The only top team they haven't faced is Team Expert, and that will happen next week. Misfits is a lock for the Western Clash and the Mid Season Brawl.

In The Hunt: FNATIC 4-1 (14-6); Team Dignitas 3-1 (9-4) - Both have beaten Team Expert and lost to Misfits

Right now, FNATIC and Dignitas are lagging behind Misfits. Both are likely heading to the Western Clash, but they will be fighting it out for the second spot in the Mid-Season Brawl. FNATIC is slightly ahead of Dig, as Dig was swept by Misfits, where as FNATIC took Misfits to five games.

Chasing: Team Expert 3-2 (12-6); Playing Ducks 2-2 (7-9) - No key wins or losses. 

Expert was on a tear at the start, winning three matches without dropping a map. Expert played well against FNATIC and Dignitas, but lost both.

Playing Ducks have beaten the lower teams, but they haven't been able to play with the contenders.

Both teams are likely to stay where they are - not in danger of relegation; not going to international competition.

In Trouble: Tricked eSport 1-4 (6-13) - Beating Synergy keeps them out of the bottom. 

Alex the Pro G is one of the best players in Europe, and the longer this team plays, the better they are getting. They have to remain ahead in early games, or they tend to falter. Bad calls are hurting this team right now; over-aggression needs to be tempered.

Heading to the Crucible: Synergy 1-4 (4-13); beGenius 0-4 (2-12) - Neither team has shown anything special. 

Right now, Synergy and beGenius are clearly at the bottom. Synergy's only win and three of their four map wins, came against beGenius. Synergy has been swept three times already. Their one other map win came against Tricked, and that had more to do with Tricked making a bad call than with Synergy making a good choice.

beGenius just cannot figure it out. They haven't played terribly, but they have just been outplayed each and every match. Often losing slightly in the draft, and then losing harder as the games go on. Only two map wins in four matches, this is the team most likely to lose their relegation match.

Predictions for Week 3 #HGC NA Feb 3-5, 2017

The split in NA is a little wild: two teams each at 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-3, making for a clear reading of who is on top and who is heading for relegation. What's more each of these pairs face each other in their first matches! How is that for planning?

That being said, some teams came out swinging last week, and nothing is certain or safe in NA, largely because the meta still isn't settled. I am currently 8-4 in picking NA matches, and three of those misses are from picking against Team 8. Here's what's going to happen this weekend... I hope!

Friday, February 3rd

Match 1: No Tomorrow vs BStep

The current seventh and eighth teams face off as both are in serious threat of a relegation match. No Tomorrow is a team a lot of people are still high on, and I don't see it. BStep has three former world champions on it, and managed to go against Tempo Storm in week one for a 3-2 match. BStep gets their first win, 3-1.

Match 2: Superstars vs. Gale Force eSports

The current third and fourth place teams face off. Superstars, in week 1, made Team Freedom look like they didn't belong. Then, last week, Team Freedom beat GFE in a shocking upset. I think, if Srey has the draft figured out, Superstars can exploit the lack of defined roles on GFE and take this series. GFE is strong, but Team Freedom gave NA the blueprint to take them down. Superstars in a close series, 3-2.

Saturday, February 4th

Match 1: Team Freedom vs Naventic

The current fifth and sixth place teams face off. After 0-2 starts, both Team Freedom and Naventic got their first wins last week. Both were 3-2 matches, but while Freedom exploited GFE in the draft, Naventic looked lost for two and a half games against No Tomorrow. I still think that Naventic is a potential contender, and Team Freedom isn't ready. Naventic finds their footing and pulls even with a 3-1 victory.

Match 2: Tempo Storm vs Team 8

The current first and second teams face off. Everyone expected Tempo Storm to be at the top after dominating NA last year as Murloc Geniuses. No one, except Team 8, expected Team 8 to be undefeated. Tempo Storm looked weak in their first two matches, where as Team 8 has looked strong and in control in every match, only dropping a single map. I'm done picking against them. Team 8 takes sole possession of first in a 3-2 match.

Sunday, February 5th

Match 1: Gale Force eSports vs Team 8

I will have serious concerns about GFE's four player flex until I see it work consistently. Fresh off of take down of Tempo, Team 8 is still hungry and GFE is a challenging meal. Team 8, gets it done, and by the end of the weekend are in sole possession of first with wins against the other three top teams, 3-2.

Match 2: BStep vs Team Freedom

Like No Tomorrow, I do not see Team Freedom as ready for prime time, a victory against GFE notwithstanding. BStep moves closer to a contender position as they get a hold of the meta, and push Team Freedom to the bottom of the heap, 3-1.

Predictions for Week 3 #HGC EU Feb. 2-5, 2017

Over two weeks, I am 12-0 picking games in EU. 100%! This is probably going to be the week that changes. Great match ups at the top this week, so here we go:

Friday, February 3rd

Match 1: Playing Ducks vs Tricked eSport 

This is the match that gets Tricked (0-3) into the win column. It is only a matter of time before a team led by AlexTheProG starts winning, and while Playing Ducks looked solid last week, TRC really looked to be improving. I may regret this, but Tricked takes it, 3-1.

Match 2: Be Genius vs FNATIC

Simply put, beGenius is not ready for the team that upset MVP Black. They looked like they were getting better last week, but that improvement comes to a halt at the hands of FNATIC. FNATIC wins 3-0.

Saturday, February 4th

Match 1: Synergy vs Misfits

Speaking of teams looking like they were coming to life, Synergy had some good plays last week in two losses, but the Russian/Ukrainian dream team is not a match for Misfits. Misfits win easily, 3-0.

Match 2: Team Dignitas vs Team Expert

While sitting at 3-0, Team Expert (formerly Two Bees Determined) has won all of their games, not dropping a map to three of the bottom four teams. Expert has never been able to get it together against the top three in EU of Dig, FNATIC, and Misfits. Sadly, for now, that trend continues. Dignitas edges out Experts, 3-2.

Sunday, February 5th

Match 1: FNATIC vs Team Expert

The second test for Expert as they want to be seen as a top contender for the Western Clash, but like Dig, FNATIC is going to be ready. Remember, Dig and FNATIC both have a loss, but they both lost to Misfits. Expert just isn't quite ready. FNATIC brings Expert down to earth, 3-1.

Match 2: Tricked eSport vs Synergy 

The bad news keeps coming for Synergy, and the good news keeps coming for Tricked. I'm willing to bet that Synergy has put all of their focus into playing Misfits, and as Tricked is coming together, they will continue to surge out of last place at the expense of Synergy. Tricked takes the match 3-1.

So this had to change... already

When I started this blog, all of a week ago, I really wanted to make this a really good, in depth, HGC Heroes of the Storm blog. After one weekend of covering HGC here and on Twitter, I'm already drained. What ended up happening was between 12 matches I needed to watch, clips I was taking off of Twitch (by the way, thank you Twitch for making clipping so easy. If Facebook live is going to be hosting Heroes of the Dorm, they have a lot to live up to), and trying to write up some analysis of the matches, I had put in over 35 hours of work in three days.

35 hours.

I wasn't enjoying the matches. I was working, looking for clips, and taking notes on stuff to write for recaps. Suddenly, my favorite new activity of the last year became an unpaid job that I was pushing myself to do. It wasn't fun. It was so unfun that I didn't bother doing the Sunday recap.

I want this to be fun.

I want this to have good information in a digestible format so you can get a quick look at what's going on.

So, here's what's going to happen:

1. I'm going to stop clipping so much on Twitter. 
2. Recaps are going to be two Tweet size. 
3. In-depth analysis will be saved for a mid-week post 
4. Predictions are still coming. I'm 20-4 over two weeks. I'm not stopping that. 
5. Tweets will be geared towards cheering for teams, clever observations, and obvious attempts to get on the stream and make Dreadnaught crack. Again. 

I cannot tell you how much I love HGC and watching competitive Heroes. This has become my favorite sport to watch, and I have had more fun watching it over the last year than I have had in all of my life being a sports fan - that said, I'm a fan of Detroit teams, so that makes a lot more sense when you consider the Lions. 

If you find this blog useful or enjoyable, great! Please let me know. 

I'll still do it, even if it's just me putting out noise.

If for no other reason, I want to keep documenting my NA/EU picks.

Those are coming up next.